Does REDD+ have a chance? 727
PLATE 1 The celebration for the 18 shehia with registered Community Forest Management Agreements at the close of the Hifadhi ya Misitu ya Asili programme project, attended by the President of the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar and representatives from the Royal Norwegian Embassy and CARE International (Pemba, August 2015; photo: M. Borgerhoff Mulder).
primarily fromhigh transaction costs associated with the tech- nical complexities of constructing cloud-free satellite images as a forest cover baseline. Sunderlin et al. (2015) deemed Zanzibar’s Hifadhi ya
Misitu ya Asili programme defunct but this was premature (see also Blomley et al., 2017). On the one hand, 18 Pem- ban shehia have formally recognized registered Community Forest Management Agreements, although one is currently ceding its status. Another 10 shehia have elected to enter the process, four await final ministerial signature, and six are in the registration process. On the other hand, there are as yet no carbon payments to communities for their conservation efforts because of continued delay in validation and veri- fication. Despite these problems, most communities are still conducting conservation activities and, with no operational budget, Department of Forestry staff continue to work with them, assisting the Shehia Conservation Committees with management issues, for example. To date, the outcomes for Pemban communities with
Community ForestManagement Agreements status aremixed. On the positive side, with their registration titles, shehia have stronger tenure rights to their forests, authority to charge revenue for legal timber use, and clearly defined land-use plans. There are some indications of success, albeit limited. A comparison of baseline rates of deforestation (2001–2010) to recent rates (2010–2018) reveals that of the 18 Pemban shehia with registeredCommunity ForestManagementAgree- ments six have managed to slow their rates of net defor- estation during 2010–2018 (Fig. 1, Supplementary Material 2, Supplementary Tables 1 & 2), and two had greater forest cover in 2018 than in 2010. Community members point to the help they receive fromthe Department of Forestry inmanag- ing their forests, particularly with respect to the fining of
FIG. 1 Pemba, showing the 18 shehia with Community Forest Management, and the annual rate of deforestation in each (from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 imagery) between our historical base (2001– 2010) and 2010–2018. Deforestation has decelerated (or reversed) in eight shehia and accelerated in 10 shehia. All details, including source of shape files, are in Supplementary Material 2.
those who steal trees and the removal of corrupt Shehia Conservation Committee members (JA & ASN, unpubl. data). REDD-ready communities have also benefitted from motivation payments that were distributed either as com- munity benefits (health facilities, mosques, madrassa) or as household payments. Furthermore, many shehia now have small-scale enterprise groups who plant firewood lots and sell their produce. Finally, there are now shehia petitioning the Department of Forestry to enter the REDD+ process (the 10 cases mentioned above, and see further details below). On the negative side, deforestation persists in all but
two shehia, and the rate is increasing in 10 shehia (Fig. 1). Although this is perhaps unsurprising given the absence of any financial support since 2014 and of any carbon payments, this indicates that the conservation behaviour promoted by REDD-readiness has not percolated to the majority of shehia that participated in Hifadhi ya Misitu ya Asili. Most palpably, the ‘economy of expectations’ (Fletcher et al., 2016) looms large. For almost 5 years
Oryx, 2021, 55(5), 725–731 © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605319001376
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