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useful tool for public engagement in reporting wildlife crime to law enforcers, but can also continue to expand the market reach of wildlife
traffickers.Many of the novel emer- ging trends point to increased access to remote areas (from human population growth, infrastructure development and migration of people from Asia into the region) and greater connectivity within and between Mesoamerican countries. New trading routes with overseas nations have also emerged, notably with China. The increase in trade of marine species not previously exploited in the region, such as sea cucumbers and glass eels, is a significant concern. This may reflect a growth in local demand for these species, but is also likely to be associated with expanding access to global markets. Although not all of these are entirely novel trends, they demonstrate emerging elements in methods used to extract species or in the expansion of consumermarkets. The failure to curb these prevailing threats is perceived to stem from a lack of effective regulation, manifesting as inadequate law enforcement, a lack of political will, and widespread corrup- tion across the region (per Cruz, 2015). These drivers inten- sify pressure on already vulnerable species as new threats emerge. Not all of these trends apply to every Mesoamerican
country, or in equal measure to all of them, because the con- texts, scenarios and situations vary amongst countries and local areas. As such, our findings are not a generalization of trends, but an indication of emergent threats and oppor- tunities arising from within the region. Equally, these trends are not all exclusive toMesoamerica. For instance trend (1), the professionalization of criminal groups in wildlife traf- ficking, has been observed in other regions and on a global scale. This also applies to trends (2), (3), (7), (8), (10) and (14). The presence of these trends suggests Mesoamerica is facing threats known from other regions, and may experi- ence similar patterns of wildlife trafficking, which further demonstrates the need for more conservation attention in the region. These parallels to other regions also help to build a global evidence base that can complement existing studies, such as the global horizon scan of emerging trends in illegal wildlife trade (Esmail et al., 2019), which otherwise focuses primarily on Africa and Asia, where more data are available. Our findings capture broad trends and provide a rapid assessment of illegal wildlife trade in the region, with scope to further explore the details. The horizon scan is only one tool, and additional methods can be used to fur- ther explore the drivers behind the trends identified here, to build a more comprehensive understanding of emerging threats and opportunities across Mesoamerica. The tech- nique presented in this study provides a cost- and time- effective way to collect a snapshot of expert opinion on the illegal wildlife trade and to capture local knowledge that is usually not as well represented in broader exercises. The rapid and adaptable nature of horizon scanning is also a significant advantage over threat assessments (which
provide a snapshot in time), given the dynamic nature of illicit activities. Illegal wildlife trade is inevitably difficult to evidence. Where data may otherwise not be published in peer reviewed literature, using expert consultation comple- mented by grey sources of information can be a valid alter- native. Since we conducted the horizon scan, more detailed data have been published on some of these trends, for ex- ample on the growing trade in sea cucumbers, birds and small mammals (trends (6)and (8); Reuter et al., 2018;Rogers et al., 2018; UNEP-WCMC, 2019), further demonstrating the validity of this approach. Horizon scanning can be used as a powerful tool for rapidly
forecasting pressures onspecies and ecosystems resulting from illegal activities, and providing direction for future law en- forcement
activities.However, it is only as useful as the sugges- tions made by the participants and to the degree to which it promotes action. An intimate understanding of, and embed- ding within, the research–implementation spaces of specific contexts in which a horizon scan is being conducted is essen- tial to ensure relevance and effectivemainstreaming of outputs (Toomey et al., 2016).Outputs can be used to compel decision- and policy-makers to address threats of immediate and po- tential concern in Mesoamerica, including National CITES Management and Scientific Authorities, and the Central American Wildlife Enforcement Network. The information generated by this study has started to inform the decision- making of organizations such as the Wildlife Conservation Society in combating illegal wildlife trade. A regular horizon scan could be conducted at relatively
low cost and would be helpful in shaping effective conserva- tion action by directing more proactive rather than reactive decision-making. It could also promote refinement of the technique presented here. Having a geo-specific focus to this method of risk analysis provides information that can guide regional conservation action and policy, and is use- ful for fostering collaboration between researchers, practi- tioners and decision-makers. Regular monitoring could also identify areas requiring further complementary re- search, such as focusing on specific taxa, key communities, new investments and specific purposes (e.g. negotiating en- vironmental components of free trade agreements). In this way it would provide the opportunity to pre-emptively recognize and address emerging pressures on Mesoameri- can species and ecosystems. Taking into account the known relationship between wildlife trade and zoonotic emerging infectious diseases, ofwhich the current COVID-19 pandemic is a likely example, the early understanding of emerging trends in wildlife trade is especially relevant for a region with high social vulnerability likeMesoamerica.
Acknowledgements We thank Mark Burgman, E.J. Milner- Gulland, Ans Vercammen and Timothy Wittig for their guidance and input, the academics, practitioners and government officials who offered their expertise during the initial stages of the horizon scan, Carmen Medina, Juan Carlos Vasquez and Chris Seeley for
Oryx, 2021, 55(5), 708–716 © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605319001133
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