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Number of malnourished children under five years of age in Sierra Leone in multiple income and climate scenarios, 2010–50
100 200 300 400 500
0
Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. (2010).
Note: The box and whiskers plot for each socioeconomic scenario shows the range of effects from the four future climate scenarios.
but the rate then holds steady. Although some increases in the numbers of malnourished children are noted in all scenarios for at least some of the years projected in the graph, we also recognize that the population will be growing and that the number of children under five will grow along with the rest of the population, implying that the percentage of children who are malnourished will likely decline in all scenarios and possibly for all years. Figure 12.21 shows the available kilocalories per capita. The optimistic sce-
nario shows a greater increase in kilocalories per capita than does the baseline scenario. The pessimistic scenario shows a decrease in kilocalories per capita through 2030 and an increasing pattern afterward, though by 2050 the kilo- calories per capita will still be fewer than we saw in 2010. Comparison with Figure 12.20 suggests that the increased availability of kilocalories is correlated with a reduction in the number of malnourished children under five years of age.
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations Crop production in Sierra Leone is very sensitive to climate and climate varia- tion, as seen in recent experience as well as in the modeled outcomes. Rainfall is becoming increasingly sporadic. For example, in 2010 and 2011 more rain