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and the high variant estimates the population at 68.5 million. That is almost triple the population of 2010. That number of people in Niger would create very high densities in the cultivable areas and put significant pressure on ara- ble land as well as on utilities. One possible policy option is the reclamation of the desert to make it more habitable, enabling an environment for growing crops and rearing livestock. This would be an uphill task based on the limited resources of the country.
Income Figure 9.13 presents three overall scenarios for Niger’s GDP per capita derived by combining three GDP scenarios with the three population scenarios of Figure 9.12 (based on UN population data). The optimistic scenario com- bines high GDP with low population scenarios for all countries, the baseline scenario combines the medium GDP projection with the medium population scenario, and the pessimistic scenario combines the low GDP scenario with the high population scenario. The agricultural modeling in the next section uses these scenarios.