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indicate the range of climate scenario effects. The number of malnourished children under age five is shown to be increasing in all scenarios through 2035. After 2025 the differences between the scenarios become increasingly pro- nounced: the number of malnourished children under age five appears lowest in the optimistic scenario and highest in the pessimistic scenario. The optimis- tic scenario shows a decline after 2035, while in the baseline scenario the num- ber will further increase, stabilizing at 2.3 million by 2040. The pessimistic scenario shows a continuing but relatively small increase after 2040. Although the absolute numbers of malnourished children are projected to rise during many of the years to come, the percentage of malnourished children is likely to decline steadily and dramatically due to the rapid population increase. Figure 9.20 shows the available kilocalories per capita. As might be
expected, there appears to be an inverse relationship between the availability of kilocalories and the number of malnourished children under age five. The increase in available kilocalories after 2025 in the optimistic scenario coincides with the decline in the number of malnourished children under age five.
FIGURE 9.20
Kilocalories per capita in Niger in multiple income and climate scenarios, 2010–50
3,000
2,000
1,000 0
Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. (2010).
Note: The box and whiskers plot for each socioeconomic scenario shows the range of effects from the four future climate scenarios.