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Income Figure 4.14 presents three scenarios for future national GDP per capita, derived by combining three GDP projections with three population projec- tions from the UN. The optimistic scenario combines high GDP with low population; the baseline scenario combines the medium GDP projection with the medium population projection; and the pessimistic scenario combines the low GDP projection with the high population projection. (The agricultural modeling in the next section will use these scenarios as well.) The economy of Burkina Faso depends on the agricultural sector (mainly cotton and livestock) and recently has depended on the mineral sector (mainly gold). Burkina Faso has very limited natural resources, and unless new mineral resources are discovered, it will be almost impossible to realize the optimis- tic scenario and the associated growth in GDP per capita. The pessimistic sce- nario predicts a rather small improvement in per capita GDP, which will rise above US$500 only after 2040 and still be below US$1,000 in 2050. The opti- mistic scenario predicts a rapid increase in per capita GDP between 2030 and 2050, from US$800 in 2030 to above US$2,500 in 2050.