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Population Figure 11.14 shows population projections by the United Nations (UN) pop- ulation office through 2050. Under the high variant, the population of Senegal would increase by 4 million every 10 years, doubling the current population by 2040. Under the low variant, the current population would not double until a decade later, in 2050.
Income Figure 11.15 presents three overall scenarios for Senegal’s GDP per capita derived by combining three GDP scenarios with the three population scenar- ios of Figure 11.14 (based on UN population data). The optimistic scenario combines high GDP with low population scenarios for all countries, the base- line scenario combines the medium GDP projection with the medium popu- lation scenario, and the pessimistic scenario combines the low GDP scenario with the high population scenario. The agricultural modeling in the next sec- tion uses these scenarios.
FIGURE 11.14 Population projections for Senegal, 2010–50 30