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yields of both crops in 2050 will remain below the genetic potential of varieties currently available. Millet production in Niger is still insufficient to meet demand. All scenarios
project a growing deficit of millet after 2020, with the greatest deficit in the pessi- mistic scenario and the smallest in the optimistic scenario. The increase in imports will be driven by a decline in the world price of millet coupled with an increase in population. Sorghum exports are projected to rise in all scenarios through 2030, then level off in the pessimistic and baseline scenarios while declining in the opti- mistic scenario. The fall in net exports will coincide with stagnation in the world price of sorghum but also with the increased welfare of the population in the opti- mistic scenario, which will enable households to purchase foods.
Human Vulnerability Scenarios In addition to agricultural scenarios, IMPACT also shows the number of mal- nourished children under the age of five, as well as the number of available kilocalories per capita. Figure 9.19 shows the impact of future GDP and population scenarios
on under-five malnutrition rates. The box-and-whisker plots in the figure FIGURE 9.19
3,000
Number of malnourished children under five years of age in Niger in multiple income and climate scenarios, 2010–50
2,000
1,000 0 Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. (2010).
Note: The box and whiskers plot for each socioeconomic scenario shows the range of effects from the four future climate scenarios.