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Kilocalories per capita in Burkina Faso in multiple income and climate scenarios, 2010–50
3,000
2,000
1,000 0
Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. (2010).
Note: The box and whiskers plot for each socioeconomic scenario shows the range of effects from the four future climate scenarios.
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations This chapter outlines Burkina Faso’s current vulnerability to climate change with respect to land use and agriculture and analyzes the potential impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study on which the chapter is based confirm the high level of uncertainty in rainfall for Burkina Faso indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (Parry et al. 2007) for all of West Africa. The study results also highlight the chal- lenges Burkina Faso faces regarding the availability of data for climate change analysis. The lack of data for forecasting models creates a handicap for long- term forecasting efforts and thus for the efficient use of scenarios. There is thus an urgent need to support the meteorological and hydrological services. Our analysis also points to the following policy implications:
Support is needed for the agricultural research system to continue its efforts in developing crop varieties tolerant of or resistant to changing cli- matic conditions of temperature and rainfall.