June, 2016


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Global Warming Danger to Coastal Cities


Continued from page 6


shocks and stresses they will face.” Since 2001, Sandia has con-


ducted consequence analyses at a national scale at the Department of Homeland Security’s National Infra- structure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), jointly housed at Sandia and Los Alamos national lab- oratories. DHS created NISAC to as- sess the impacts of a variety of threats to the nation’s critical infra- structures. The research foundation built by NISAC made it possible for Sandia to build its detailed analysis of Norfolk’s infrastructure.


Risks to Critical Infrastructures “Recently, a lot of people have


come to the realization that cities are where the rubber meets the road,” says manager Eric Vugrin, who leads Sandia’s 100RC work. “It’s the cities that have the gover- nance and operational responsibility to get things done.” In the first step of the Urban Re-


silience Analysis Process, Sandia ex- perts work with city personnel, utility and industrial representatives, and emergency planners to identify poten- tial disasters and infrastructure that is critical to the city. That initial step informs later decisions about invest- ment priorities. Then decision-makers identify


acute and chronic problems for the city and develop resilience metrics to measure the effectiveness of differ- ent solutions. In Norfolk’s case, San- dia estimated direct economic losses to local businesses and indirect loss- es to local, national and internation- al businesses. While such analyses would take


into account multiple scenarios and infrastructures, Sandia’s report was limited in scope to show what such a process can do for cities. Sandia looked at four critical infrastruc- tures — electrical power, telecommu- nications, transportation and its fu- els — and the economic damage that would result from disrupted services in Norfolk and the region.


Analysis Details City’s Importance


Sandia researched the effects of


a 100-year flood in three scenarios of net rising sea levels of 0, 1.5 and 3 feet and created maps at a resolution of 10.9 yards (10 meters) to show how far inland floodwater would reach. Experts then overlaid electri- cal substations, roadways, telecom- munications centers and fuel infra- structure to show the flood’s impact. The analysis focused on Naval


Station Norfolk; the Norfolk Interna- tional Terminal, one of the nation’s busiest ports; and Lambert’s Point Pier 6 Coal Terminal, the largest and fastest coal transport facility in the northern hemisphere. Pier 6 and two other coal terminals in the re- gion account for about 40 percent of all coal exports from the U.S. and about 70 percent of coal shipping ca- pacity on the eastern seaboard. “Norfolk is critical to coal trans-


portation nationally and globally, particularly for coal blended for met- allurgical uses, such as steel produc- tion,” says Jeffers. By providing cities like Norfolk with data to quantify their national and global importance, Sandia helps them build their cases


for obtaining funding to pay for infra- structure investments.


Quantifying Impacts The Regional Economic Ac-


counting Tool developed by Sandia found that regional direct and indi- rect economic impacts in the four days following a flood would range from $354 million to $606 million, depending on which of the three sce- narios the model used. Indirect economic


impacts


might include disruptions to the re- gional supply chain or losses to busi- nesses dependent on infrastructure, and related businesses suffering


flood damage. “The city itself might not be able to afford all the flood mit- igation they require, but if you look at the national security and national economic implications, the perform- ance of the city of Norfolk is impor- tant and there may be national in- centives to help them build resilience


By providing cities like Norfolk with data to


quantify their national and global importance, Sandia helps them build their


cases for obtaining funding to pay for infrastructure investments.


into their city,” says Vugrin. While Norfolk’s report was lim- ited in scope to show how the concept


Page 35


worked, such analyses can be ap- plied to any disaster, for example, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, cyberattacks, power outages or ter- rorist attacks. Also, cities can choose to analyze any number of critical in- frastructures or solutions. Eventually, Norfolk can deter-


mine the most cost-effective invest- ments by plugging in a variety of so- lutions or combinations of solutions into the model, which will simulate the economic outcome of each choice. With more research and develop- ment, Sandia aims to improve the analysis tool and make it more user- friendly for cities. Since city planners don’t have


time to learn all the sophisticated mathematical models in the tool, Sandia is working to simplify this framework and hand it over to the cities for their use. r


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