HS2
take a while; I mean Crossrail took three years in the committee stage, all things can happen.
“That’s why I say it is too early to declare contingency release. With regards to Phase Two, it was never planned to start until 2021 construction, so if that goes into debate for 2017 to come out by 2020 – when you look at the engineering side of it – work could start a little quicker than planned.”
Also, as the project will span the lifetime of four to fi ve parliaments, Sir David believes that it is critical to have bipartisan support for the project. He added that the Labour party’s requests have always been the same as the government’s, which is for proper scrutiny, proper pressure on costs and in particular how this will link in with the rest of the plans for the north. “So, in the end we need a more integrated plan for the north,” he noted.
Funding
During his review of the £50bn high-speed rail project, Sir David analysed the funding for both Phase One and Phase Two.
He stated: “I consider that it would be irresponsible to reduce the substantial contingency included. I
believe that the
resulting Phase One budget of £21.4bn, plus £3bn for trains, is enough to deliver Phase One.
“Inevitably, given the early stage of the project and the degree of uncertainty around the legislative process, there is an element of judgement involved in making that assessment and some variance on quanta and allocation according to the original fi gures. Overall, however, I am confi dent that the budget can be made to work.”
In addition to this, the government has set aside a further £21.2bn for the second phase
56 | rail technology magazine Apr/May 14
of the project and that, plus the money to be allocated as part of Network Rail’s two control periods running from 2019 to 2029, should form the basis for a fully integrated plan.
During the funding calculations, as part of the HS2 Plus review, Sir David added that the starting point was the original budget for the infrastructure, track, and the trains, rolling stock, split between the two phases – without any contingency. “We then tested each line item on the Phase One budget and, where we thought necessary, adjusted accordingly. And then we added in the contingency, which, given the continuing uncertainty at this stage of the project amounts to about a third of the project, and we reached our conclusion that the budget is about right.”
Conclusions
At the launch event in Manchester Town Hall, Sir David also told RTM that during the project the relationship between Network Rail and HS2 in the future will be “incredibly, closely linked, much closer than they currently are”.
He also stated that in terms of job opportunities, HS2 will provide tens of thousands of jobs in construction while stimulating economic activity in the north.
However, to achieve all his plans for Phase Two, including to hopefully fi nish the project
in 2030 rather than 2033, Sir David said: “We need to work with Network Rail, government, and above all local leaders across the north as a whole to produce an integrated plan that will maximise the benefi t of HS2 not just north/south, but also east/west from Liverpool to Hull”.
Summing up his review, the former Network Rail boss stated that, if done right, HS2 can provide an answer that stands the test of time and addresses the issues of congestion in the south, and lack of connectivity in the north.
He added: “The cost and impact are issues that have to be recognised and acknowledged, but so, too, does the cost and impact of doing nothing. Without HS2 the people of this country will continue to face the failures of our transport system on a daily basis.
“With it they will begin to see a strategic answer that can deliver real benefi ts within the foreseeable future.
“That is why, I believe, HS2 is a project which, despite the issues it raises, is in the national interest.”
Sir David Higgins FOR MORE INFORMATION
The full HS2 Plus report is at
www.tinyurl.com/HS2-Plus
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112 |
Page 113 |
Page 114 |
Page 115 |
Page 116 |
Page 117 |
Page 118 |
Page 119 |
Page 120 |
Page 121 |
Page 122 |
Page 123 |
Page 124 |
Page 125 |
Page 126 |
Page 127 |
Page 128 |
Page 129 |
Page 130 |
Page 131 |
Page 132 |
Page 133 |
Page 134 |
Page 135 |
Page 136 |
Page 137 |
Page 138 |
Page 139 |
Page 140 |
Page 141 |
Page 142 |
Page 143 |
Page 144 |
Page 145 |
Page 146 |
Page 147 |
Page 148 |
Page 149 |
Page 150 |
Page 151 |
Page 152 |
Page 153 |
Page 154 |
Page 155 |
Page 156 |
Page 157 |
Page 158 |
Page 159 |
Page 160 |
Page 161 |
Page 162 |
Page 163 |
Page 164 |
Page 165 |
Page 166 |
Page 167 |
Page 168 |
Page 169 |
Page 170 |
Page 171 |
Page 172 |
Page 173 |
Page 174 |
Page 175 |
Page 176 |
Page 177 |
Page 178 |
Page 179 |
Page 180 |
Page 181 |
Page 182 |
Page 183 |
Page 184 |
Page 185 |
Page 186 |
Page 187 |
Page 188 |
Page 189 |
Page 190 |
Page 191 |
Page 192 |
Page 193 |
Page 194 |
Page 195 |
Page 196 |
Page 197 |
Page 198 |
Page 199 |
Page 200 |
Page 201 |
Page 202 |
Page 203 |
Page 204 |
Page 205 |
Page 206 |
Page 207 |
Page 208