question of the month
World air cargo traffic contracted by 5.9 percent in 2008 and 14.1 percent in 2009: When do you forecast that the industry will return to the levels seen in 2007?
MICHAELMEAGHER Executive vice president,
Saudi Airlines Cargo Company
“If I knewthe answer to that questionwith any certainty, thenmaybe I should look to another career!” suggests MichaelMeagher, executive vice president, Saudi Airlines Cargo Company – the stand- alone air freight unit of Saudi Arabian Airlines. “Our industry is impacted
by national, regional and global developments, any one ofwhich can have a negative or positive effect on global traffic levels. There still remainmany uncertainties on the sustainability of the current improvements in the economic climate. “Nevertheless, based on
the improvement in our business for the latter part of 2009,which I amglad to say is continuing into the earlymonths of 2010, and talking to our customers across the regions, I am optimistic. I believe that global traffic levelswill improve significantly in 2010 andwill come in ahead of forecasted growth fromIATA and other trade bodies.” “Until such time as consumer confidence returns,
“I am optimistic. I believe that global traffic levels will improve significantly in 2010.”
supplierswill continue tomaintain lowinventory levels. This combinedwith the credit crunch kick-started the recovery in our business last year. These conditionswill not change in the immediate future; therefore the recovery in our industry should bemaintained. “The challenge for us in the industry is to convince
our customers to continue to use air cargo for the benefits they experienced during this crisis. Thiswe must do by continuing to improve our service levels, adding value to our product andmaintaining competitiveness comparedwith othermodes of transport. “Ifwe can do this I believewewill see 2007 levels
return by the third quarter of 2011 and theywill exceed this level in 2012.”
ENNOOSINGA Senior vice president cargo,
AmsterdamAirport Schiphol
Enno Osinga, senior vice president cargo, Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, considers: “It takes a braveman to forecast the economic recovery rate after last year’s downturn. “Whatwe see is that some
major airlines are very careful in putting capacity back into themarket.While froman airport perspective it is volume that counts, the airlines need yield before they can have the confidence to bring all available capacity back on line. “In Amsterdamwe are
encouragedwith the solid return of volumes now already for the fifth consecutivemonth. Asia and specifically China providemost of this growth andwhat is really positive is that also outbound fromEurope to Asia the volumes are growing fast. In fact the outbound growth ismuch stronger that the inbound. “Thiswill help address the traditional imbalance
“Based on what we see today, we would expect that by the end of 2011 at the latest we will be back to our 2007 levels.”
that exists on these routes. At Schipholwe attribute this better balance to the increased focus on Amsterdambymany of the forwarderswho are more andmore consolidating their European cargo at Schiphol. “Based onwhatwe see today,wewould expect
that by the end of 2011 at the latestwewill be back to our 2007 levels. In fact ifwe can believe the plans thatwe hear frommany airlines to extend their services to Schiphol this recovery could even come sooner. “But as I said, today it takes a braveman tomake
a forecast.We areworkingwith different scenarios and the answer is ‘yes’, one of themdoes include a delayed recovery untilmiddle to late 2012.”
4 AIR LOGISTICSCHINA 0
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