interview
we are doing better thanwe had foreseen and themarket has somewhat recovered. But we don’t know how long this will last. There’s a lot of risk. There is talk of a bubble in China and another real estate bubble in the US, and certain European countries are on the verge of bankruptcy. All this can have an effect on consumer confidence. Right now things are looking strong – but it would be foolish to think that we are back to normal.We have to be diligent this year.”
Doyousee yourbusiness linkswithChina continuing togrowover thenextdecade as the country resumes full production as‘theworld factory’?
“Looking at the macroeconomic level, I think China and the Asia region will be the strong motor of development. That market is balancing out too: it’s not just about exports, but also imports into China are increasing as themiddle class there has a lot of disposable income and they want luxury goods from areas such as Europe. “We have a strong focus on China and a good traffic rights
portfolio there. It’s an important area for us. “But the next couple of yearswill be volatile and you have to
prepare your operations to cope with volatility in themarket. You have to be flexible and adjust to changes; I think change is going to be the only constant in the next few years.”
Do you think that the coming months will see manufacturersbegin to rethink theirmanufacturing and supply chain strategies?
“Air freight cuts out capital exposure from the supply chain. The more you put on sea freight, the more capital exposure you have – for example, you could put a shipment of laptops on a ship for several days and wait weeks before getting a return on the product, or you could put it on an aircraft for a few hours and get your cash in a much shorter time. You need air freight to cut lead times. Peoplewill continue to pay for that. “Nearsourcingwill not prevail. Studies ofwages, productivity
and transportation costs have shown that the savings you can make on transportation costs by nearsourcing are outweighed by the lowerwages and higher productivity levels achieved by outsourcing. I don’t think nearsourcing will replace long-haul transportation.”
Your fleet features the most fuel-efficient and quietest long-range widebody aircraft currently available. In the fourth quarter of this year you will start to take delivery of the B747-8F, a further step- change towards more environmentally-friendly air cargo transport.What advantageswill the arrival of the newfreighter bring to your business?
I think change is going to be the only constant in the next few years.”
“There are several effects. The B747-8F is a stretched version of the B747-400, so you have the same running costs but around 15 to 20 tonnesmore capacity. It also uses over 2 percent less kerosene because the engines performbetter, and it gives you a longer range. This will give us advantages in terms of our productivity,whichwe expect to increase by 16 to 18 percent. Because the aircraft has a longer range, it will give us more flexibility in our route planning. “It’s also very important tomention that the B747-8F is a big step forward in terms of CO2
emissions and noise levels. This is
very important to us in terms of fuel burn and environmental contribution. In years to come the consumer focus will be on the environmental performance of the supplier – we are seeing it already in tenders. In the end it still boils down to the price you charge for being able to offer good environmental performance, but as regulations increase, I think the consumer will be willing to take over some of the cost.”
As chairman of The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) – a body that offers an international student scholarship award related to air freight –what importance should be attached to attracting/sponsoring graduate level entrants to the air cargo industry?
“Overall I believe this is very important.We needmore focus on the problems we will face in the future, so we need to bringmore expertise into air cargo in order to dealwith those challenges such as the environment, legal issues and security requirements. “In certain parts of theworld, logistics education is very good,
but we want a level playing field – people in some regions don’t have good opportunities to make use of education. I’d like to see TIACA take a regionalised approach towards this problem, as the needs are so different in different areas.”
AIR LOGISTICSCHINA 17
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