USElectricity
Figure 10: Ranking of Top 10 Strategic Issues As Determined
by All Respondents.
Ratherthanarecession,weshouldbecalling
this a global consumer de-leveraging. The
economic decline should stabilise in the
secondhalfof2009,butrecoverycan’tbegin
inearnestuntiltheindividualconsumersde-
leveragetheirpersonaldebtpositions.Home
equity values will remain below peak for
several years. At the same time, value
recovery in individual investment accounts
couldtakefiveto10years.
Climate Change Legislation:Someformof
carbonlegislationwilloccuratthenational
level.Thestructurewillbesuchthattheresult
willbeafeel-goodtaxontheconsumerthat
doeslittletochangetheclimateequation.The
debateovertheaccuracyofthesciencewillbe
rekindledoncethebillsarriveinthemailbox.
Source: Black&VeatchStrategicDirectionsSurvey
Investment: Renewableenergyinvestment
an excellent distribution of respondents among job level themeswillcontinuetohaveahighprofileastheydidin2008.
categories,with34%ofallrespondentslistingthemselvesasat Nuclear development will continue to move forward –
the ‘executive’ level and another 42% at the discussions regarding nuclear waste disposal will re-emerge.
management/supervisorylevel. Some new coal plants in the current
It should be noted that the Black &
Theeconomicdecline
queue will be approved, but few new
Veatch survey was conducted in mid-
2008justbeforethecreditcrisisbegan
shouldstabiliseinthesecond
proposalswillbeintroducedintheUS.
CCS technology will get increasing
proper.However,whilethe2009survey
halfof2009...
amountsofattention.
(takenlaterthisyear)islikelytoshow Infrastructure funds/investor-owned
thelong-terminvestmentcategorygaininginprominence,it utilityjointventuresandpublic/privatepartnershipswillgrow
mightnotleadthepack.Issuessuchasreliability,environment asasolutionforprovidingthelargeamountsofcapitalneeded
and aging infrastructure are mission critical government toaddressthenecessaryinfrastructureinvestments.
mandates.Failuretocomplycanresultinstifffineswhilecosts
arerecoverableinrates. Production: Oilpriceswillcontinuetoriseandmighteven
Ahigh-levelanalysisoftheseresultsshowstheimpactthat reboundtoaUS$75peak.Theliftingofdrillingmoratoriums
theEPAActof2005(whichempoweredFERCtolevyfinancial willputsomenewareasintothedevelopmentphase.
•
penaltiesuptoUS$1millionperday,peroccurrence)hashad,
raising the issue to number one. Close behind is the
Stephen A. StolzeisanAssociateVicePresidentwith
environment,whichindicatesaconcernabouttheincreased
EnterpriseManagementSolutions–themanagement
likelihood of GHG legislation in the near-term. Aging
consultingdivisionofBlack&VeatchCorporation.
infrastructureisdirectlyrelatedtoreliabilityconcerns.Allthree
E:
stolzesa@bv.com
surpassedlastyear’snumberoneissueofagingworkforce.*
EnterpriseManagementSolutions–themanagement
consultingdivisionofBlack&VeatchCorporation,is
Surviving the ‘Crash & Burn’ Economy – Predictions
amongtheworld’spremierstrategic,economicand
Reviewingpastyearperformanceiseasybutpredictingthe
managementconsultingfirmsspecialisinginenergy,water,
futureismorevaluable.Thefollowingarepredictionsforthe
informationandgovernmentmatters.
yearahead.
www.bv.com/consult
Economic Recovery: Weareinthisoneforthelonghaul.
www.bv.com
34 worldPower2009
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