Clean Energy Investment
Noton Track
The impact of recession and low energy prices may push peak CO
2
emissions back
by more than adecade.
ByGuyIsherwood
T
he world economic crisis has hit investment in clean willcontinuetorisefrom28GtonnesofCO
2
todaytonearly36
energy and means its growth is no longer on track for Gtonnesof CO
2
by 2030 (Figure 1).
the world to avert the worst impact of climate change, Global Futures 2009 also looks at a 2020 Peak Scenario, in
according to leading clean energy and carbon market which emissions peak before 2020. This shows that in order to
analysts, NewEnergy Finance (NEF). achieve peak CO
2
emissions this side of 2020, investment has
Presenting their Global Futures 2009 insights, NEF analysts to reach US$370 bn by 2015 and $US500 bn by 2020 (44%
saythatalthoughlowereconomicactivityduetothefinancial higher than in the Base Scenario. In this case, emissions from
crisis will reduce CO
2
emissions, in the longer-term the drying fossil fuels peak at 30.8 Gtonnes in 2019 and reduce to 29.1
up of funding for lower carbon energy solutions is likely to Gtonnesby 2030.
have far greater adverse impacton emissions. Global Futures 2009 estimates that the recession’s direct
InvestmentincleanenergyincreasedfromUS$34bnin2004 impactonCO
2
emissionsislikelytobemoderate,reducingthe
toaround US$150 bn in each of 2007 and 2008. total by around 1 Gtonne per year (3%), and certainly not
NEF’s latest report demonstrates that investment needs to enough toavertacontinued upward trend.
reachUS$500bnperannumby2020ifCO
2
emissionsfromthe
world’s energy system are to peak before 2020. Scientific SubstantialIncreaseinCleanEnergyExpected
experts fear that continued growth of emissions beyond 2015, Global Futures 2009 predictsverysubstantialgrowthinclean
or 2020 at the latest, would create the strongest risks of severe energy over the coming decades in all scenarios. The Base
and irreversible climate change. NEF analysis shows that a Scenario showsinvestmentgrowing toUS$348 bn by 2020 and
peak much before 2020 currently looks US$461 bn in 2030. Renewable energy
highly unlikely.
Investmentin clean energy
will provide 26% of all electricity by
NEFexpectsinvestmentincleanenergy
to hold steady at around US$150 bn per
increased fromUS$34 bn in
2030. This compares with average
annual investment of US$332 bn and
annum through the economic downturn
2004 toaround US$150 bn ...
23% of electricity generation by 2030 in
and resume growth thereafter. In the the International Energy Agency’s World
Global Futures 2009 Base Scenario, investment is insufficient to Energy Outlook 2008 Reference Scenario (see page 14).
drive down CO
2
emissions from the energy system this side of Inthe Base Scenario,CO
2
emissionsin2030fromtheworld’s
2030. Total investment is set to reach US$270 bn by 2015 and energysystemwillbesome13%belowthe Reference Scenario of
US$350bnby2020.However,emissionsfromfuelcombustion the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, as a
result of faster growth in renewable energy, lower
Figure1: EmissionsFromFuelCombustion,GTCO
2
energy intensity per unit of GDP and faster build-
out of carbon capture and sequestration.
However, they will be up over 25% on current
emissions, at 35.8 Gtonnes per year, and still
climbing by 2030.
MoreRapidTransitionto
CleanEnergyNeeded
Global Futures 2009 shows that achieving peak
CO
2
emissions by 2020 is possible, but an
accelerated pace of investment is needed. In the
Peak Scenario, CO
2
emissions from the world’s
energy infrastructure peak at 30.8 Gtonnes in
2019.Inordertoachievethis,annualinvestments
inrenewableenergy,energyefficiencyandcarbon
captureneedtoreachUS$500bnby2020,risingto
over $US600 bn by 2030, compared to US$350 bn
Source: NewEnergy Finance, IEA
by2020andUS$461bn2030inthe Base Scenario.
120 worldPower2009
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