CleanEnergy
Figure 2: Total Renewable Energy Capacity (GW)
& Renewable Electricity Share (%) in Base Scenario
and industry towards natural gas. In the Base
Scenario, this accounts for 2.5 Gtonnes of
emissions by 2030, rising to 4.8 Gtonnes in the
2020Peak scenario.
•
Carbon Capture & Storage: Inthe2020 Peak
Scenario,thereisnotmuchdifferencebefore2020,
as the technology goes through its pilot phase.
However,intheperiodto2030,investmentinCCS
reachesUS$23.3bn,andasmuchas0.78Gtonnes
ofcarbonarecapturedandstoredannually.
Source: NewEnergyFinance,IEA
GlobalFutures2009alsolookedattheimpact
According to the International Panel on Climate Change’s on emissions of the following sectors: Nuclear power,
fourth Assessment Report in 2007, limiting likely average geothermal, biomass and biofuels, marine power (wave and
globaltemperatureto2.0to2.4°C–thoughttobethehighest tide) and hydro. Analysis of the impact of each in the Base
‘safe’level–meansstabilisingCO
2
equivalentconcentrations ScenarioandPeak Scenarioiscontainedinthefullreport.
at445to490partspermillion,whichinturnrequiresreaching Reflectingontheinsights,MichaelLiebreich,Chairmanand
peak CO
2
emissions by 2015. Reaching peak CO
2
by 2020, CEOofNEF,said:“Thisshouldbearealwake-upcall.NEFis
followed by a cut in emissions of 50% by 2050, should limit generally on the optimistic side of the debate: even with the
globalaveragetemperatureincreaseto2.4to2.8°C.In2007at current recession we are more bullish on the shift to clean
itsHeiligendammSummit,theG8acknowledgedtheneedfor energy than most mainstream analysts. However, it is no
CO
2
emissions“topeakwithin10to15years.” longerpossibletosayweareontracktoachievepeakby2020.
Somethinghastohappen,eitherintermsofrestoringcreditto
How to Reach Peak CO
2
by 2020 – Key Elements cleanenergyprojects,orintermsofasurprisinglysubstantial
In January, NEF published a major report with the World outcomeinCopenhagen.”
EconomicForumentitledGreen Investing: Towards a Low-Carbon GuyTurner,DirectorofNEF’sNewCarbonFinanceDivision
Energy Infrastructure. The analysts outlined the emerging says:“OurworkatNewCarbonFinanceindicatesthatclimate
elementsofalowcarbonenergysystem,whichwillincludea changepoliciesandspecificallycarboncap-and-tradesystems
significantproportionofrenewableenergy,supportedbyfour aremakingamaterialdifferencetoshiftingfromhighcarbon
enablers: energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, a tolowcarbonenergy.However,theGlobal Futures 2009workis
smart grid and power storage. Global Futures 2009 builds on sobering:itshowsthatitjustisnothappeningfastenough.”
thatworktolookatcontributionstoemissionsreductionsfrom NEFestimatestheinvestmentneededtohalttheriseinCO
2
eachformofenergy,andtherelatedcosts. emissionsby2020isroughly0.44%ofglobalGDP.Failureto
The key drivers of changes to emissions from the energy addressclimatechange,ontheotherhand,isestimatedinthe
infrastructures modelled in Global Futures 2009 include the Stern Review and elsewhere to cost the world at least 5% of
following: globalGDP.
•
•
Energy Efficiency:InordertoreachtheCO
2
peakby2020,
additionalannualinvestmentsinenergyefficiencybeyond
Guy Isherwood isPublisherandEditorofWorldPower.
the Base Scenario are needed of US$22 bn in 2020 and
www.commodities-now.com
US$68bnby2030.
Global Futures 2009,developedbyNewEnergyFinance,isan
•
Wind Power: To achieve peak CO
integratedmodeloftheworld’senergysupply,usingsystems
2
by 2020, wind
investment needs to increase to US$110 bn by 2020 and
dynamicstechniquestoshowhowdifferentelementsinteract.It
US$121bnby2030.
isdistinctiveinbuildingonthecompany’scoreareasof
research,includingcleanenergyinvestmentactivityand
•
Solar Photovoltaics: In the 2020 Peak Scenario, annual
economics,technologytrendsandpotential,andcarbonprice
investmentinsolargrowstoUS$228bnby2020,stabilising
modelling.Itallowsscenariosforinvestment,capacityand
atUS$200bnby2030.
emissionstobeexploredrapidlyfordifferentlevelsofgrowth,
•
Coal to Gas Switching: As a result, there will be an
energyintensity,technologyprogressionandpolicymeasures.
ongoing switch from the use of coal in power generation
www.newenergyfinance.com
worldPower2009 121
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