USElectricity
Figure 6: US Energy Consumption by Fuel,
Figure 7: The Energy Intensity of US Economy
1980-2030, (Quadrillion BTUs)
Steadily Declines
Source: EIA,2009 Source: EIA,2009
7%from2007to2030–lowerthanthe11%increaseintotal reference case, in part because uncertainty about potential
energyuse.Overthesameperiod,theeconomybecomesless GHG regulations and their impact on coal use leads to an
carbon-intensiveasCO
2
emissionsgrowbyaboutone-tenthof increase in natural gas use for electric power generation,
theincreaseinGDP,andemissionspercapitadeclineby14%.” offsetting lower consumption in the residential, commercial,
andindustrialsectors.”
Energy Prices & Consumption Coal continues to be an important energy source. Total
Even though the slowing world economies have caused oil consumption increases by 3.7 quadrillion Btu to 26.4
prices to drop significantly, the AEO2009 reference case quadrillion Btu (1,358 million short tons) in 2030. In the
includes high world oil prices by the end of its 2030 forecast AEO2009 reference case, coal consumption for generation
horizon. Oil prices are already recovering as the economy increases by 2.1 quadrillion Btu to 24.1 Btu in 2030. The
continues its decline. The AEO2009 predicts: “In 2030 the increaseincoalconsumptionisalsoimpactinggrowthincoal
averagerealpriceofcrudeoilwillbeUS$130perbarrelin2007 useatCTLplantsasaresultofhigherpricesforliquids.
dollars,oraboutUS$189perbarrelinnominaldollars.”The AEO2009 states: “Rapid growth in the consumption of
removal of moratoria on offshore leasing and drilling in the renewablefuelsresultsmainlyfromtheimplementationofthe
Atlantic, Pacific, and Eastern Gulf of Mexico areas should federal RFS for transportation fuels and state renewable
resultinproductionfromsomeofthoseareaseventhoughthe portfolio standard (RPS) programs for electricity generation.
debatecontinuesatthefederalandstatelevels. Growth in renewable electricity, other than hydropower,
Increased use of biofuels and tighter CAFE standards will provides 33% of the growth in electricity demand between
moderateliquidsdemand.However,increasedpriceswillresult 2007 and 2030.” This prediction might increase with the
in more domestic production. US dependence on liquids extension of production tax credits and, if policies are
imports as a share of total use could be reduced from 2007 implemented,beaimedatreducingGHGemissions.
levelsof58%to41%by2030.
Naturalgaspricesstabilisethrough2011andthenbeginto How Changes in the Global Energy Picture
increase, reaching US$9.25 per million Btu (2007 dollars) in Will Impact Electricity
2030. Total natural gas consumption for power generation InAEO2009,coalremainsthedominantfuelforelectricity
increases by 40% compared to current levels. The AEO2009 generation. This situation will remain unchanged until such
reference case states, “Natural gas consumption ranges timeasaGHGpolicyisputinplacethatdrivescarboncredits
between22.5and23.4trillioncubicfeetthrough2020before toapricethatcausenaturalgastobepositionedaheadofcoal
increasing gradually to 24.4 trillion cubic feet in 2030 – 1.7 inthedispatchqueue.Currentestimatesforthistooccurarein
trillion cubic feet more than projected in the AEO2008 the US$60 per ton and above range, assuming US$6.50 Btu
reference case. Despite higher natural gas prices, electric gas.Overall,fossilfuelsareexpectedtosupply79%oftotalUS
power sector consumption in 2030 is 2 trillion cubic feet primary energy supply requirements in 2030 according to
higher in the AEO2009 reference case than in the AEO2008 AEO2009. This amount is down from previous projections
32 worldPower2009
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