Nuclear Future
Figure 1: US Electricity Production Costs, 2007
1995-2007 (in 2007 cents/kWh)
and is on the verge of exporting these to other
countries. China and India are now the obvious
growth markets for new nuclear reactors and both
haveannouncedambitiousplans.Chinahasuseda
mix of indigenous and imported technology
whereas India, until recently barred from
international nuclear commerce because of its
weapons programme, has had to rely mainly on
Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel Costs
domestic technology.
The world has now reached the point where a
further expansion of nuclear power depends
Source: Global Energy Decisions, 2008
crucially on enhanced international co-operation.
President Eisenhower’s ‘Atoms For Peace’ was the
The North American Experience foundation of the civil industry over the past 50 years and led
To some extent, nuclear power in North America has to the initial spurt of nuclear power with the International
suffered from similar ills to the British programme. The Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) policing the necessary
military legacy has been difficult to shake off, while safeguards against civil materials being put to military uses.
construction delays and poor operating performances (now We now need to move beyond this, as several weaknesses in
fortunately corrected) in both the US and Canada have the existing regime are quite obvious.
harmed plant economics. Lack of standardisation of reactor The non-proliferation arrangements introduced have been
designs was a major weakness in the United States – caused sound to the extent that few new countries, beyond the
partly by the fragmentation of ownership – in contrast to original five, have acquired nuclear weapons while the ability
France where one utility owns and ofterroristgroupstomisusenuclear
operates all the nuclear plants. The
The world has now reached the
technology remains unproven. Yet
failure to resolve the waste issue
has also been a negative feature,
point where a further expansion of
concerns about proliferation are
today as strong as ever, reinforced
with continued delays to the Yucca
nuclear power depends crucially on
bytherecenttroublesoverIranand
Mountain repository. The Obama enhanced international co-operation North Korea. Another weakness is
administration has now effectively with the management of used
killed the prospect of a permanent repository on that site by nuclear fuel. Under the existing regime, this is a national
cutting off its funding. Nevertheless, 104 reactors are now matter with each country required to find solutions for its own
operatingverywellintheUS,withtheirgenerationcostslower waste materials – which will eventually logically involve a
than the competing power technologies. Most, if not all, are national repository in each country. This is economically
expectedtoreceivelicenseextensionsupto60years(Figure1). absurd and will therefore serve to prevent a resolution to
probably the biggest issue of public acceptance with which the
The Asian Dimension industry has had to deal. Finally, although the number of
Asia has gradually become the most important area for trade restrictions in the nuclear fuel cycle has diminished over
nuclear power, particularly looking ahead. Japan has time, there still remain areas where lack of bilateral nuclear
embraced nuclear power for similar energy security reasons to co-operation agreements or national protectionism prevents a
France,butwithoutpushingthenuclearshareupsofar.Recent better flow of materials and technology.
reactors have been built on schedule and to budget, although There are already complementary initiatives in place to
public acceptance has been damaged by a number of address these issues, led by the IAEA, the US and Russia. The
comparatively minor incidents in safety and its verification. It Director General of IAEA, Dr El Baredei, has proposed
can be argued that Korea has perhaps the best balanced and establishing regional centres for uranium enrichment, used
planned power generating sector in the world, with nuclear fuel reprocessing and final disposal of wastes, all closely
now accounting for around 40% of the generating mix, monitored under IAEA safeguards. These would service the
combined with coal, gas and oil. From a base of imported world nuclear industry with fuel throughout the full cycle,
technology, Korea can now design and build its own reactors particularly those countries new to nuclear power. This should
154 worldPower2009
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