Power Dynamics
Figure2: ElectricityDemandGrowthRatesbyRegion
Washington. China has recently stepped up its
national efforts to improve energy efficiency,
including mobilising its massive stimulus fund,
and the country is mounting major efforts to
become a global leader in electric transportation
and solar energy. A leading Chinese academic
with close government connections suggested
recently that the day may be approaching when
China will establish limits on the growth of its
GHG emissions.
Source: IEA –*Reference Scenario
InIndia,thegovernmenthasbeguntoflesh-out
its National Action Plan on climate change, with
maximising future growth.” a major emphasis on improving energy efficiency –
Within biofuels and biomass, second generation biofuels, particularly in buildings. Like China, India has integrated
such as ethanol from woody crops/straw, have substantially climate into its development plans and has targeted solar
lower energy requirements and GHG gas emissions than their energy, the country’s largest single resource, as a strategic
first generation equivalents like ethanol made from crops such economic priority. The growing dialogue among this small
aswheatandsugarbeet.AccordingtoJeanetteWhitakerofthe group of countries that account for the great majority of
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Lancaster, UK, “These climate problems will be critical for paving the way to
findings are important and relevant, as the current biofuel Copenhagen in December. According to Christopher Flavin,
debatehascentredontheissueofthecompetingneedforcrops President of the Worldwatch Institute, “If these nations
to be used for food versus fuel.” convince each other that a post-carbon economy is possible –
and that the economic benefits will go to those countries that
ClimateAgreement:CopenhagenorBust? get there first – their reluctance to sign a strong new climate
Governments across the world are preparing their deal will fade.”
negotiating positions for December’s UN Climate Change Thesumtotalofalltheworld’spollutionshavealreadyadded
Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15), where, all being well, more than half a billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere
major steps will be taken to put the world on a different, more that would otherwise not be there. But just as important as
sustainable emissions trajectory. curbingGHGemissionsistheneedtorecogniseandunderstand
That is the plan, but is it one based on optimism or realism, that the Earth’s natural ecosystems regulate its climate and
and just how secure is the path to Copenhagen? If any chemistry. However, we can’t just turn off our energy-intensive,
evidence were required that a new climate agreement is fossil-fuel powered civilisation without ‘crashing’. What is
necessaryitwasprovidedbythelatestemissiondatapublished required is a soft landing – one with a powered descent. Among
by the UNFCCC. The data hardly inspires optimism, with other issues, this has ignited the debate surrounding the future
industrialised countries’ GHG emissions continuing to rise. of nuclear energy. In increasing numbers, politicians believe
While emissions of the 40 industrialised countries that have that nuclear power should remain a key source of energy to
reporting obligations under the Convention satisfy our power demands (see page 152).
were 5% below the 1990 benchmark in
The change in US
For the cynical – or could that be the
2006, these emissions still increased 2.3%
between 2000 and 2006. They may have
administration has had
realists – most government targets to reduce
CO
2
emissions are viewed as unrealistic
fallen slightly as the global recession
the largest impact on
given current policies, while significant
continuesbutaresuretoretaintheirnormal
climate atmospherics
numbers do not see the benefit of a small
path as activity picks up once again. carbon footprint and are relegating carbon
Nevertheless, there are signs that many countries are more reduction measures to concentrate on managing costs during
ready to consider major changes in direction than they were the economic downturn.
just a few months ago. The change in US administration has Nonetheless, renewable technologies are providing more
had the largest impact on climate atmospherics. Energy policy power and are increasingly competitive with conventional
is developing even more rapidly in Beijing than it is in sources. They have a critical part to play in the fuel mix and
10 worldPower2009
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