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Policy Scenarios
Figure2: WorldElectricityGeneration,TWh,2006-2030
Renewable energy plays a major role in the
global electricity mix, supplying 30% of total
electricity in 2030 (up from 23% in the Reference
Scenario). The biggest increase is in OECD
countries, where the share of hydropower,
biomass and other renewables nearly doubles to
31% by 2030. Nuclear power generation reaches
over 4,000 TWh in 2030 (533 GW), about 20%
more than in the Reference Scenario, as a result of
license extensions of existing plants over the
period 2006-2030 and to the accelerated build-up
of newfacilities.
Source: IEA
The450PolicyScenario
In the 550 Policy Scenario, global CO
2
emissions from power In the 450 Policy Scenario, primary energy demand grows at
plants in 2030 are 30% lower than in the Reference Scenario. an average 0.8% per year to 2030, half the rate of growth in
This reduction comes mainly because of greater use of low- the Reference Scenario. Demand approaches 14,400 Mtoe in
carbontechnologiesandtoalesserextentfromlowerdemand 2030 – a reduction of about 7% relative to the 550 Policy
forelectricity(whichis9%lowerthaninthe Reference Scenario Scenario and16%relativetothe Reference Scenario.Theannual
becauseofgreaterenergyefficiencyinindustryandbuildings). saving compared with the Reference Scenario is comparable to
World electricity generation reaches30,000 TWh in 2030. the current energy demand of OECD North America. The
By 2030 the share of fossil fuels in the electricity generation reduction in the use of fossil fuels (over 4,000 Mtoe in 2030
mixfallsfrom66%inthe Reference Scenario to55%inthe 550 relative to the Reference Scenario) is partially offset by an
Policy Scenario, the current share being 67% (Figure 2). The increase in low-carbon fuels (nearly 1,400 Mtoe). Despite the
largest fall is in the share of coal, which drops to 32% in 2030 sharp decline in fossil fuel use (relative to the Reference
– 12 percentage points lower than in the Reference Scenario, Scenario) fossil fuels still account for 67% of primary energy
despite a growing contribution from carbon capture and demand in 2030, 14 percentage pointslessthan today.
storage (CCS). In 2030, the installed capacity of CCS plants In the 450 Policy Scenario, power sector CO
2
emissions fall to
amountsto162GWworldwide,ofwhich111GW(about70%) 8.3 Gt in 2030, 35% lower than in the 550 Policy Scenario and
is in OECD countries. CO
2
emissions per MWh electricity 27% lower than in 2006. This scenario requires a fast
generatedfallfrom604kilogramsin2006to424kilogramsin decarbonisationofelectricitygeneration:CO
2
emissionsfallto
2030. 286 kilograms per MWh. All new fossil fuel plants built in the
OECD after 2020 are fitted with CCS.
Figure3:WorldInstalledCapacitybyPlantType,2030 Additional savings come from more efficient
use of electricity.
Nuclear power capacity rises to almost 680
GWin2030(Figure3)supplying18%oftotal
electricity. The most dramatic increase is in
the use of renewable energy; 40% of
electricity generation in 2030 comes from
renewable energy sources. CCS capacity rises
to360 GW, supplying 8%of world electricity.
Newcapacity&investment
In the Reference Scenario, total gross
capacityadditionsamountto4,500GWover
the period 2007-2030, about 190 GW of new
Source: IEA capacity per year through to 2030. The total
16 worldPower2009
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