Power Dynamics
Figure1: WorldElectricityGenerationbyFuel*
ReferenceScenario, the IEA projects that the world’s
overall energy needs will grow by up to 50% to
2030 – with demand reaching 17.7 billion tonnes
of oil equivalent. Developing countries together
provide 74% of this increase (with China and
India alone providing 45%).
The share of natural gas in electricity
generation is expected to fall as a result of higher
prices. Nuclear also loses market share, dropping
from 15% to 13% in 2015 and to 11% in 2030.
However, the share of renewables rises
considerably – growing from 18% of total Source: IEA –*Reference Scenario
generation in 2006 to 23% by 2030 (IEA Reference
Scenario – see Figure 1).
Table1: ProjectedCapacityAdditions&InvestmentNeeds*
Total capacity additions, including replacement
Country/ Investment,2007-2015 Investment,2016-2030
and expansion, amount to approximately 4,530
Region Capacity Power Transmission/ Capacity Power Transmission/
GW over the IEA outlook period – averaging
Added(GW) Generation Distribution Added(GW) Generation Distribution
around 190 GW per year to 2030. Total
OECD 514 982 934 1,107 2,467 1,325
cumulative investment in the power sector is
N. America 215 379 381 480 1,136 750
projected at US$13.6 trillion – just over half of all
Europe 221 457 374 465 1.048 380
Pacific 78 146 180 163 283 195
energy sector investment (US$26 trillion) during
Non–OECD 1,177 1,215 1,874 1,730 2,177 2,630
the period to 2030. E.Europe/
All told, rising energy demand poses a real and
Eurasia 137 180 238 159 274 224
growing threat to the world’s energy security –
Asia 781 794 1,327 1,170 1,379 1,827
and to the environment. Even if we can get supply
China 574 521 908 718 753 917
Middle East 78 59 99 160 135 217
to match projected demand, the world can no
Africa 59 59 86 91 159 144
longer produce and consume hydrocarbons in the Latin America 121 123 125 149 230 220
same way it has for the last two centuries without
World 1,691 2,197 2,808 2,837 4,644 3,956
causing cataclysmic changes to the Earth’s
Source: IEA. * In the Reference Scenario – In 2007 US$ billions
climate. Emissions are now 25% ahead of those in
1990, rising by 1.5 - 2% per annum over the long-term in a renewable energy technologies, their potential to supply us
business-as-usual scenario. with the energy we need is tremendous.”
However, with adequate financial and political support, Previous projections put renewables’ share much lower by
renewable energy technologies like wind and photovoltaics 2030. Other research further supports the viability of
could supply 40% of the world’s electricity by 2050, according renewables, closely examining the limitations and potential of
to findings from the International Scientific Congress: Climate wind, biomass and biofuels.
Change: Global Risks, Challenges & According to Erik Lundtang Petersen of
Decisions. However, if such technologies
... renewable energy ... could
Risø DTU’s Wind Energy Department in
are marginalised, their share is likely to
hover below 15%. But can renewables
supply 40% of the world’s
Roskilde, Denmark, in order for the wind
sector to deliver its full potential, it must
really take us that far? Research recently
electricity by 2050
focus on efficiently delivering, installing
presented by Peter Lund of the Helsinki and connecting large amounts of wind
University of Technology’s Advanced Energy Systems in Espoo, power to the grid, with a strong emphasis on reliability,
Finland, suggests they can. “Our findings demonstrate that availability and accessibility of turbines. “We have identified
with global political support and financial investment, specific areas of priority for the wind sector to effectively deliver
previous notions that the potential for renewables was in some the overall objective of cost reductions,” says Petersen.
way limited to a negligible fraction of world demand were “Research areas including turbine technology, wind energy
wrong,” says Lund. “If we prioritise and recognise the value of integration and offshore deployment will be crucial to
worldPower2009 9
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