EuropeanElectricity
high oil prices and concerns over a growing dependence on Bulgaria has just started in Belene, for completion in 2014,
foreign gas has also been reviving the nuclear option. whileconstructionofasecondunitwillstartinMarch2010for
However, the prospect of cost over-runs and uncertainty over completioninJune2015.InSlovakia,unitsMochovce3and4
the cost of capital mean heavy financial risks, and the totalling 0.9 GWs are expected to come online by 2013 –
construction process currently underway in Finland is giving although a second unit at the Bohunice plant was shut down
naysayers plenty of ammunition. The Finnish plant was at the end of 2008 following a precondition for Slovak entry
expected to come online in 2009, but it’s now set to start into the EU. The government has raised the prospect of
generating in 2013. Interestingly, the Finnish power generator buildinganadditionalunitatBohuniceby2020andatanew
Fortum is proposing a second nuclear site in the east of the country
unit on the island of Hastholmen in
Shiftingopiniononthe
(Kecerovce),possiblyby2025.
Loviisa, with expectations that it would
be operational in 2020. Considering the
nuclearoptionmakes
There was talk during the Russia-
Ukraine gas standoff about the possible
large scale of the investment required
nuclearshutdownsless
reopening of units 3 and 4 at the
(with the necessity to find significant likelyacrossEurope Kozloduy plant in Bulgaria totalling
capital), the timing of the construction about 1.2 GWs, together with the
process and key uncertainties over the long-term regulatory recentlyshutdownBohunice2plantinSlovakia.InRomania,
framework (especially carbon), the role of nuclear in the plans are well advanced for completing two units by 2015. In
European energy mix will be slow to change significantly addition,Polandplanstohaveasecond3GWsnuclearpower
overtime. stationonstreamby2024,addingtoafirstoneoperationalby
In France, EdF has started the construction of the new 1,600 2020.IntheBalkansdiscussionsarecurrentlybeingheldona
MWs Flamanville 3 EPR nuclear plant, which should be possiblenuclearunittobebuiltinAlbania.
commissioned by 2013, while the construction of a new Shifting opinion on the nuclear option makes nuclear
nuclear unit has been announced at Penly and is expected to shutdowns less likely across Europe. Decisions on nuclear
be operational in 2017. The press has recently reported that a closures still remain a political matter in many countries, but
thirdEPRmaybeinthepipeline,althoughitwouldbelikelyto steps more favourable toward nuclear are being taken. In
bebuiltafter2020.EDFhasagreedtoteamupwiththeItalian Germany, nuclear units are being granted an additional
generator Enel to build EPR units in the Italian market. While extensiontotheirallowedlifespan,althoughPIRAhasassumed
the agreement is particularly ambitious, with at least four that the shutdown will not go ahead as planned. In the
units set to be built, PIRA believes that one unit may possibly meantime,Swedenhasalreadyreversedadecisiontophaseout
come online shortly after 2020. With this agreement, Italy the country’s reactors (the law initially foresaw shutting down
reversedadecisiontoexitnuclearpowermadeafterapopular allthecountry'splantsby2010).
referendumheldin1987intheaftermathofChernobyl. However, it should be noted that about 18% of the current
With regard to new nuclear units, the UK has seen more nuclear fleet operational across Europe (about 26 GWs) was
activity than any other market, with power generators in the built in the 1970s and will soon be approaching the 40
th
year
process of considering alternative options or projects. In of operation. Further operation of these units may find
November 2007, E.ON UK acquired land at Oldbury, although barriers in design limitations, or aging components or
this seems only one of several sites under consideration. It materials,especiallysincethesewerethefirstunitstobebuilt.
signed a transmission capacity agreement with National Grid Projectscurrentlyinthepipelinearefarbelowthetotalageing
in September for a 1,600 MWs power plant at the Oldbury nuclear units likely to be retired, which is to say that the
substation.InNovember2007,EdFownedBritishEnergysigned contribution of nuclear within the energy mix is likely to
transmission agreements with National Grid for four new move lower going forward.
•
nuclear power stations giving total capacity of 8.2 GWs. More
recently, RWE-npower finalised an agreement with National
Bruno Brunetti leadstheEuropeanElectricitypracticeat
GridforapossiblenuclearpowerprojectatWylfa,for3.6GWs.
theNewYorkbasedconsultancyPIRAEnergyGroup.
PIRA believes that up to two units will come onstream, most
E:
bbrunetti@pira.com
likelyafter2020,partiallyoffsettingadecliningnuclearoutput
T:+12126866808
derivedfromtheclosureofolderunits.
www.pira.com
In eastern Europe, construction of the first 1 GW unit in
worldPower2009 23
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