PolicyScenarios
Figure 1: Global Primary Energy Consumption, 2006-2030
entirely different pathway – to break the link
between economic growth and higher emissions
andpromoteanew,low-carbongrowthtrajectory
that rolls out the most efficient technologies
available on a truly global scale, whilst
continuing to make major steps forward in
developingthetechnologiesofthefuture.
WEO 2008 takes a detailed look at the policy
options for tackling climate change after 2012,
whenanewglobalagreementwouldbelikelyto
take effect. We examine in detail, through
scenario analysis, how different international
Source: IEA
agreements and national commitments on
climate change could affect the evolution of energy markets mix in this scenario is markedly different to that of the
after 2012. The analysis is built around three of the most Reference Scenario, with fossil fuels losing market share to
commonly-discussed elements of a post-2012 climate renewables and nuclear power. By 2030, primary energy
framework,namelycap-and-trade(inthepowerandindustry intensityis9%lowerthaninthe Reference Scenario.
sectors), international sectoral agreements (in the transport Coal demand in 2030 drops most, in both absolute and
and in the industry sectors) and national policies and percentage terms (compared to the Reference Scenario). The
measures.Aplausiblecombinationofthesemechanismshas introduction of national policies and measures in China,
beenmodelledintwoscenarios:Oneinwhichitisagreedin India,Russia,MiddleEastandothermiddle-incomecountries
Copenhagen to limit the GHG concentration in the (hereafter Other Major Economies) – in particular policies to
atmosphereto550ppm(inCO
2
-equivalentterms);andonein promote energy efficiency, nuclear, renewables and more
which the concentration is held to 450 ppm, resulting in a efficientcoal-firedpowerplants–accountsforthebulkofthe
global temperature rise of around 3°C and 2°C respectively. differenceincoaldemandbetweenthe Reference Scenario and
These scenarios are compared against the Reference Scenario, the550 Policy Scenario.In2030,coaldemandisstill17%higher
whichisbasedoncurrentpoliciesonly. than today’s level. Oil demand rises to 97.6 mb/d in 2030
UnderaglobalagreementtoreduceGHGemissions,muchof (almost9mb/dlessthaninthe Reference Scenario).Morethan
thecutmustcomefromthepowersector.Whilethe550ppm halfofthesavingsinoildemandoccurinthetransportsector
can be achieved mainly through existing technologies, 450 ofOECDandOtherMajorEconomies,duetotheintroduction
ppm requires the rapid development and deployment of new ofinternationalsectoralagreementsforlightdutyvehiclesand
technologies. In 2006, CO
2
emissions from power plants aviation.Naturalgasdemandisprojectedtogrowby1.4%per
reached11Gt,or40%oftotalCO
2
emissionsfromfossilfuel year,comparedwith1.8%inthe Reference Scenario.
combustion,andwithoutadditionalpolicies,theyareprojected The share in the world primary energy mix of low-carbon
toriseto18Gtby2030.Inthe550 Policy Scenario,theyrisemore energy,suchashydropower,nuclear,biomassandrenewables,
slowly,to13Gt,whileinthe450PolicyScenariotheyfallwell increases from 19% in 2006 to 25% in 2030. Hydropower
below the current level, to about 8 Gt. These reductions are demandincreasesinthe 550 Policy Scenario toreach462Mtoe
achieved due to lower electricity demand (through energy in 2030, compared with 418 Mtoe in the Reference Scenario.
efficiency savings) and from greater Other renewables, such as wind and
use of low-carbon technologies
Underaglobalagreement...
solar, receive a much bigger boost,
(renewables, nuclear power and
carbondioxidecaptureandstorage).
muchofthecutmustcome
risingseven-foldfromjust66Mtoein
2006 to the same level as hydro in
fromthepowersector
2030. Modern biomass use also
The 550 Policy Scenario increases – both in power generation
In the 550 Policy Scenario, world primary energy demand andindecentralisedheatproductionfordomestic,commercial
expandsbyabout32%between2006and2030toreachnearly andindustryneeds–toaround1,200Mtoein2030.Nuclear
15,500 Mtoe. Global energy-related CO
2
emissions peak in growsattwiceasfastastheReferenceScenariotoreachnearly
2025 and then decline slightly to 33 Gt in 2030. The energy 1,100Mtoein2030.
worldPower2009 15
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