Optimising Power Trading
Figure3: Two-dayAuctionCapacity&PricesforCouplingPoints:GermanytoFrance
Source: Deutsche Börse Energy Facts:
•
TemperatureprognosisbasedonmeteorologicalmodelMOS relevant than absolute temperature changes. Deutsche
(= model output statistics). The first 48hr Ensemble-MOS Börse’s normal temperature for Germany is based on a 10
prognosis could be based on a HIRLAM (High Resolution year data history for each hour of the day and is calculated
Limited Area Model from the Dutch Meteorology Service) asthemeanvalueofa21daysintervaleach.Obviously,the
model. normaltemperatureisalsobasedonthesamecitystructure
•
Power temperature differs from normal weather forecasts as the temperature prognosis in order to be comparable.
becauseitreflectsthecountry-widepowerconsumption.For
•
Resolution in hours for next 240 hours and Base (24hours
German temperature Deutsche Börse AG uses the mean of mean) and Peak (8:00 to 20:00 mean) for each day.
the temperature prognosis for the following cities: Berlin,
Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt and Munich as market Figure 4 shows the temperature prognosis for Germany for
standard.ThismeanvaluerepresentsGermanywithregard the next 240 hours resolution.
to total power consumption.
•
Temperature prognosis is provided in hourly resolution for WindEnergyForecast
the next 240 hours and also shows differences between the Windenergyistheprognosisofpoweroutputbasedonwind
latestandthepreviousforecast.Forecastsareupdatedevery generation for the defined country. There are complex
6 hours (e.g. 0:30, 6:30, 12:30, 18:30) with a 240 hours fundamental models that calculate wind energy using several
prognosis each. input parameters such as wind speed in different altitudes for
•
Anormaltemperaturecurveisofgreatimportanceinorder allrelevantregionsandeveryinstalledwindmillinthatregion
to identify temperature anomalies which might be more with its specific power output and efficiency. Such data is
Figure4: TemperaturePrognosisforGermany–Next240Hours,13.05.09–22.05.09
Source: Deutsche Börse Energy Facts: Actual,previous(previous6hours)and10yearsnormaltemperatureintheupperchart.Thelowerchart
showstheprognosisforbothBaseandPeak.Alldataareupdatedevery6hours(0:30,6:30,12:30,18:30)witha240hoursprognosiseach.
26 worldPower2009
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