SUNDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2010
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Politics & The Nation No matter who’s in majority, parties are unlikely to make nice congress from A1
larger percentage of liberals who may not be as eager as their lead- ers to seek consensus. Then there’s thematter ofwho,
exactly, will be in the House and Senate. If a number of tea party favorites win, for instance, they will bring with them a defy-the- leadership mentality that could further complicate efforts at com- promise, even among Republi- cans. And all members will be look-
ing ahead, not just to their own reelection bids but also to helping frame the debate for the fast-ap- proaching 2012 presidential cam- paign,whichwill begin in earnest pretty much the day this year’s election ends. “Tome, you’re looking at a very
dysfunctional place,” said former congressman TomDavis (R-Va.). HowtheWhiteHouse reacts to
the changed political landscape will also affect the new dynamics on Capitol Hill. Obama could choose to push a bold agenda in hopesof settingupRepublicansas obstructionists. He could also choose amoderate approachinan effort to win back support from centrist voters who have moved sharply against him. If he opts for the latter, he will
find Republican allies on theHill, according to Senate Minority LeaderMitchMcConnell (R-Ky.). “I think the voters are going to
expect that, as a result of this election, the president is going to govern as he campaigned, as a
centrist,” saidMcConnell, specifi- cally pointing to reducing spend- ing and the debt as issues where there’s roomfor agreement. “We’d be interested in doing business with him.” Close divides in Congress don’t
alwaysmeangridlock. In2001, for example, a 50-50 Senate and a narrowlydividedHouseapproved landmark education legislation andexpansive tax cutswithbipar- tisan votes. Manyobserversandlawmakers
said times have only grown more partisan since then, predicting that Republicans will have little incentive to cutdealswithObama so close to a presidential election that may hinge on his ability to tout bipartisan achievements. That could make gridlock the
most likely scenario for 2011, and it could come in any number of forms.
AGOPmajority Should the Republicans win
the House, they would add large numbers from two competing camps: rural and Southern repre- sentatives who embrace the tea party goal of adramatically small- er government, and Northern moderates whose backers are more interested in solutions. Those competing interests
wouldmake it difficult for House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), thewould-be speaker, to pass ambitious legislation such as a repeal of the health-care law. With 179 seats in Republican hands now—they need 39 for the
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the candidateswho took themost extreme positionwon,”Rep.Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Fri- day. “Thatwould be the danger of these guys being in the majority. Extremism, no negotiations, is what carried the day.” Van Hollen predicted that this
attitude would turn off enough middle-of-the-road voters to keep themajorityinDemocratichands. Even so, he acknowledged that such a resultwould lead to amore targetedDemocratic agenda. “There would be a focus on
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Sen.MitchMcConnell (R-Ky.) says the Senate does its best when the margins are narrow.
bare 218-vote majority — even a 50-seat pickup would leave Boeh- nerwith fewer than a dozen votes to spare. If Boehner can muscle major
legislation through the House, there’s little chance itwouldmake it through a tightly divided Sen- ate, at least in the same form. If Democrats maintain control of the Senate, there’s not much chance itwould survive at all. WithaDemocratic caucus of 59
senators, they would have to lose 10 seats to lose control. Regardless of who holds the
gavels,Democratspredict that the new class of Republicans will make it difficult to find common ground with their own leaders, much less the opposition party.
more bite-sized issues,” Van Hol- len said. That approach could infuriate
liberals and set off Democratic infighting.Liberals say the party’s coming losses are the result of a lack of fortitude to approve an evenbolder agenda, including ini- tiatives such as comprehensive immigration reform.
Bipartisanship backlash Just as troubling for those look-
ing for compromise is the lasting effect the 2010 primary season will have on the 112th Congress, withmembers studying the losses this year by Sens. Robert F. Ben- nett (R-Utah),LisaMurkowski (R- Alaska) and Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) — all to primary challengers who accused themof bipartisan comi- ty.
Consider Sen. Orrin G. Hatch
(R-Utah),who has been one of the most important dealmakers on
domestic policy for the past three decades. Hatch, who is up for reelection
in2012, is slatedtobecomethetop Republican on the Finance Com- mittee. That would make him a critical player on every piece of legislation related to taxes and entitlements, and he would as- sumethepostwithoneeyetoward his state’s tea party activists. Hatch is alreadymeetingwith the same activists who ousted Ben- nett, inaneffort to avoid the same fate. “In all honesty I always run
scared,” Hatch told Bloomberg Television on Friday. “I don’t care who runs against me. . . . I think they know that I’m not Bob Ben- nett. Bob was a conservative, but I’mmore conservative than he is.” On foreign policy, Sen. Richard
G. Lugar (Ind.) has been the Obama administration’s top Re- publican ally, but he too is up for reelection in 2012 and has drawn some interest from tea partiers. The same goes for Olympia J. Snowe (Maine), the most liberal Republican in the Senate. To avoidmaking the samemis-
takes that have bedeviled parties that took over Congress in similar circumstances, senior Republi- cans are studying the history of large “wave” elections. Since World War II, both the
House and Senate have changed hands three times in a president’s first midterm election — in 1946, 1954 and 1994—and in each case the president was returned to of- fice.
After 1994, Republicans over-
reachedintrying to eliminate fed- eral agencies and drastically cut spending. The public recoiled during an infamous government shutdown in 1996 and granted President Bill Clinton a second term. But McConnell and Boehner
aremuchdifferent fromtheir pre- decessors in that period, House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and Senate Majority Leader Robert J. Dole (Kan.). Dole, the eventual nominee
against Clinton, was running for president as soon as the Republi- canswontheirmajority.Gingrich, who spent much of 1995 mulling his own presidential bid,was con- sidered a great thinker but a not- so-greatexecutorof ideas.McCon- nell and Boehner appear to have no larger ambitions than their current jobs—just inthemajority capacity. The Senate has had plenty of
recent practice with narrow ma- jorities. In six of the past 10 years, the Senate has been split 51-49 or 50-50. McConnell said he thinks the Senate does its best work when the margins are narrower and the majority is compelled to bring inminority views. IfObama is willing to find credible central ground,McConnell saidhewill be able to deliver the votes, even fromsome of the firebrand fresh- men. “I don’t think anyone should
believetheyweresent toWashing- ton to do nothing,” he said.
kanep@washpost.com
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