SUNDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2010
KLMNO Obama’s Plan B may be pointing to obstructionism obama from A1
and the president has not spelled one out. How Obama approaches the coming years will depend in part on whether Democrats lose Congress or survive with narrow- er majorities. Yet no matter how theelections turnout,aconsensus hasemergedintheWestWingthat Obama will have to set out goals that do not rely as much on Con- gress to advance his unfinished reformagenda.Evenwith his par- ty now in control on Capitol Hill, Obamahashad difficultywinning approval forbig initiatives suchas health care and financial regula- tion.After the gruelingmidterms, andwith diminished ranks, Dem- ocratswill probably return for the new Congress in January more cautious. “Clearly the agenda carried out
by the administration in the first two years — the agenda that it wantedtodorather thanhadtodo — will be smaller these next two years,” said William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings In- stitutionwhowas a policy adviser in the Clinton administration. “But there is still an agenda of necessity with Congress and the administration will not be able to just avoidit entirely.” One senior administration offi-
cial said that the courts may play an expanded role in the next two years, as thepresidentdefendshis health-care and financial-regula- tion reform laws against legal challenges brought by opponents who hope to undo them or dial themback.
Executive force Thepresidentcouldalsochoose
to use — or threaten to use — his executive powers to get some of what hewants donewithout seek- ing congressional approval. Last year, he backed EPA Administra- tor Lisa P. Jackson’s decision to enact tough new regulations on carbonemissionsunlessCongress takes action. Similarly, President GeorgeW. Bush, facedwith oppo- sition from Democrats in Con- gress,made significant changes to federal environmental rules to make it easier for the oil and gas industry to explore on federal lands. Obama’s lack of a specific plan
for a second term contrasts with the blueprint he drew up as he prepared to take office in January 2009.He and his advisers careful- lyplottedwhat theyintendedtodo andinwhatorder theyintendedto do it. Health care was the center- piece, of course, but Obama even instructed aides to begin making lists of possible nominees for the SupremeCourt. One thing the president didnot
plan for then was the public’s growing discontentwith his focus onhealthcare andotherpriorities as theeconomycontinuedtofalter — which led to a drop in his ap- proval rating and helped fuel a backlash againstDemocratic can- didates.Obama’s advisers arenow perhaps reluctant to make deci- sions until they can survey the volatile political environment in whichtheywillplay out. “The biggest difference is going
to be that we had a unique situa- tionaswetookofficethat required us to do extraordinary things that were not particularly popular,” said Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary. He cited the $814 billion stimulusmeasure and the decision to throwamulti- billion-dollar lifeline to Chrysler andGeneralMotors. “Part ofwhat the next two yearswill be about is implementingwhatwe have done these first two years,”Gibbs said. The party in power has histori-
cally lost congressional seats in midterm elections, forcing presi- dents to alter tactics and rethink policy ambitions. But history also shows that presidents have re- vived their fortunes during times of divided government (if that is what Nov. 2 brings) when both parties have a political stake in compromising to get thingsdone.
Twomodels Two of Obama’s Democratic
predecessors, Harry S. Truman andBillClinton,grappledwiththe question of whether to seek con- frontationor compromisewithan oppositionist Congress — and tookdifferent approaches. Truman chose confrontation.
Heproposedlandmarklegislation on civil rights and health care, “knowing that they were dead on arrival” in the Republican-con- trolled Congress, said Stanford historian David M. Kennedy. He then campaigned successfully against the “do-nothing” Con- gress. “That isastrategy that I thinkis
available to Obama,” Kennedy said. “He can’t overdo it, but he couldbringforwardoneor twobig legislative proposals, and he has a platformreadymade forhimthen to blame Republican obstruction- ism.” Clinton, by contrast, worked
with Republicans for more mod- est legislative measures that ap- pealed to themiddle class. This is the approach favored by Obama’s departed chief of staff, Rahm
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Emanuel, a veteran of the Clinton White House. “Thatmay bemore suited to his temperament and instincts given that he has largely proposed that over the past two years,”Kennedy said. Truman and Clinton both were
returnedto office.Administration officials said that Obama, whose time in office has revealed a ten- sionbetweenhis big reformambi- tions and his political pragma- tism,willprobably settleonapath betweenthe two. Not all the remaining items on
Obama’s to-do list are politically popular. Cap-and-trade energy
legislation and an immigration overhaul, for instance, aredivisive evenamong someDemocrats. One strain of discussionwithin
the White House is how to make themmore palatable—or how to blame Republicans if they end up stalling inCongress. For much of the year, Obama
has spoken in favor of energy and immigration reform, gathering advocates of each periodically at theWhiteHouse formeetings.Yet he never made either a priority after the long, politically costly fight overhealthcare. Some senior advisers have ar-
gued that an immigration over- haul could be accomplished a piece at a time instead of all at once.Obama, theysay,couldbegin by trying to building support for the DREAM Act, for example, which would allow minors in the country illegally a path to perma- nent residency. If Obama pushes through that
measure, firstproposednineyears ago, it couldhelp energizeLatinos and such politically powerful la- bor groups as the ServiceEmploy- ees International Union, whose more than 2 million members have lobbied for immigration re-
EZ SU
Politics & The Nation
form. But in the past Obama has said repeatedly that only compre- hensive reform can fix what he calls “ourbrokenimmigrationsys- tem,” and senior advisers have said publicly that an immigration overhaul cannot be broken into pieces. Administrationofficialsbelieve
that energy reform—awishof the environmental community, an- other key Democratic constituen- cy—would be evenmore difficult toaccomplishpiecemeal.Foracap on carbon emissions to work, the advisers say, it must be accompa- niedby the creationof amarket to trade carboncredits. Whatever Obama’s ambitions on immigration and the environ-
A5
ment, Democrats on Capitol Hill are pressing himnot to lose sight of what they say must be his top priority: the economy. “I would really hope — and I
know a lot of members in our caucus hope — his first effort would be to focus on jobs,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), a vice chairman of the Democratic Congressional Cam- paignCommittee. “Up next is his reelection,” she
said. “Right nowwe’re beingmea- sured on our results. The next roundwill behis results.”
wilsons@washpost.com
Staffwriter Anne E.Kornblut contributed to this report.
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