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6Smarter Stats is a blog written by Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. For complete analysis of all of the week’s games go to
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EZ RE NFL WEEK 6
KLMNO 6
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2010
THE LEAGUE: The Post’s blog is your place for all things NFL during the season.
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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
1 p.m.,WUSA-9, Patriots by 21/2
The Patriots lead the NFL with an average of 32.8 points. The Ravens have allowed the fourth- fewest points per game, 14.4. The Patriots will play their first game withoutWRRandyMoss, who was traded toMinnesota. Deion Branch, above, was reacquired from Seattle and could start in his place.
SMARTER STATS: The Ravens, famed for their defense, have been vulnerable to the run. They are giving up 4.13 yards per carry. The Patriots, who were having trouble fittingMoss into their 2010 offense before they traded him, are actually slightly more efficient with their aerial attack than they were last season.
USERS PICKING THE RAVENS 50% GAMESNOTONTELEVISION
Seattle at Chicago 1 p.m., Bears by 6
MATCHUP
Chicago is tied for NFL lead in takeaways (14) with Detroit. DE Julius Peppers has forced three turnovers, including an interception, and has two strips on sacks. Seahawks K Olindo Mare has made his last 25 field goal attempts, dating from last year’s game against the Bears.
Detroit at NewYork Giants 1 p.m., Giants by 10
If the Lions lose, they will tie their own NFL record with their 24th straight setback on the road. They lost 24 straight from 2001 to 2003 before a win at Chicago to open 2004 season. Giants DE Osi Umenyiora has five sacks and four forced fumbles in last two games.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh 1 p.m., Steelers by 14
The Browns are the only NFL team to not give up a rushing TD this season.Without QB Ben Roethlisberger this season, the Steelers are last in the NFL in passing yards (544 ). SteelersWRHinesWard has caught a pass in 182 consecutive games.
Miami at Green Bay 1 p.m., Packers by 3
Packers TE Jermichael Finley (knee) and LB Nick Barnett (wrist) had surgery this week and could be out for the year. QB Aaron Rodgers is recovering from a concussion; backup Matt Flynn took snaps in practice. LB Clay Matthews (hamstring) leads the NFL with 81/2
San Diego at St. Louis 1 p.m., Chargers by 81/2
Chargers QB Philip Rivers has 1,759 yards passing, fifth best all-time through the first five games of a season, including two 400-yard games. Rams RB Steven Jackson needs 141 yards to pass Eric Dickerson (7,245) and become franchise’s leading career rusher.
NewOrleans at Tampa Bay 1 p.m., Saints by 4
Tampa Bay’s defense is last in the NFL in sacks, with four. It’s second in interceptions with nine—three by Aqib Talib, who sat out one game while serving a suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
Kansas City at Houston 1 p.m., Texans by 41/2
The Chiefs are outrushing opponents by 68.3 yards per game, have allowed an NFL-low three sacks and have a league-low 17 plays for negative yards. Texans RB Arian Foster leads the NFL with 564 yards rushing. His 112.8 ypg average is second to Adrian Peterson (120 ypg).
Oakland at San Francisco 4:05 p.m., 49ers by 7
Both teams have gone seven straight years without a winning record. The Raiders won last week despite allowing the Chargers 506 yards. The Niners have scored two TDs on the first drive of the game. They have just six TDs on their other 50 drives.
NewYork Jets at Denver 4:05 p.m., Jets by 31/2
The Jets lead the NFL with a plus-11 turnover margin. Their offense has fumbled the ball away only once. QB Mark Sanchez has yet to throw an interception. Denver is the first NFL team to have three receivers wlth at least 29 catches and over 300 yards receiving in first five games.
AFC EAST W L T PCT. PF PA
N.Y. Jets ............. 4 1 0 .800 135 81 New England ....... 3 1 0 .750 131 96 Miami .................. 2 2 0 .500 66 92 Buffalo ................ 0 5 0 .000 87 161
SOUTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Houston .............. 3 2 0 .600 118 136 Jacksonville ........ 3 2 0 .600 107 137 Tennessee ........... 3 2 0 .600 132 95 Indianapolis ........ 3 2 0 .600 136 101
AFCINDIVIDUALLEADERS QB’S
Brady,NWE................122 85
Att Com Yds TD 911
9
P. Rivers, SND ............183 115 1759 P. Manning, IND..........216 146 1609 Fitzpatrick, BUF............85 52
Orton, DEN..................213 141 1733 V. Young, TEN...............96 59 Sanchez, NYJ..............147 81 Garrard, JAC ...............116 77 S. Wallace, CLE...........100 63
595 684
902 789 693
Schaub, HOU...............164 102 1233 RUSHERS
Att Yds Avg
A. Foster, HOU..............96 562 5.85 Chr. Johnson, TEN ......113 485 4.29 Tomlinson, NYJ ............76 435 5.72 Mendenhall, PIT............89 411 4.62 Benson, CIN ................103 406 3.94 Jones-Drew, JAC ........102 406 3.98
11 11 7 8 6 8 9 4 7
LG
74t 76t 31
50t 22 23
Int 2 4 2 2 3 2 0 6 2 5
TD 4 6 3 4 2 1
NORTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Baltimore ............ 4 1 0 .800 92 72 Pittsburgh ........... 3 1 0 .750 86 50 Cincinnati ............ 2 3 0 .400 100 102 Cleveland ............ 1 4 0 .200 78 97
WEST W L T PCT. PF PA
Kansas City ......... 3 1 0 .750 77 57 Oakland ............... 2 3 0 .400 111 134 Denver ................ 2 3 0 .400 104 116 San Diego ............ 2 3 0 .400 140 106
NFC EAST W L T PCT. PF PA
Washington ........ 3 2 0 .600 89 92 N.Y. Giants .......... 3 2 0 .600 106 98 Philadelphia ........ 3 2 0 .600 122 103 Dallas .................. 1 3 0 .250 81 87
SOUTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Atlanta ................ 4 1 0 .800 113 70 Tampa Bay .......... 3 1 0 .750 74 80 New Orleans ....... 3 2 0 .600 99 102 Carolina ............... 0 5 0 .000 52 110
RUSHERS Att Yds Avg
D. McFadden, OAK........85 392 4.61 Rice, BAL ......................87 363 4.17 Hillis, CLE......................76 350 4.61 Charles, KAN ................50 325 6.50
RECEIVERS No Yds Avg
Wayne, IND...................39 531 13.6 Collie, IND.....................37 446 12.1 T. Owens, CIN ...............31 476 15.4 Gaffney, DEN................31 327 10.5 Dal. Clark, IND ..............31 295
9.5
B. Lloyd, DEN................30 589 19.6 Gates, SND ...................29 478 16.5 E. Royal, DEN................29 330 11.4 Boldin, BAL...................28 363 13.0 Z. Miller, OAK...............28 340 12.1
LG 33 30 48
56t LG
42
73t 78t 28
50t 61 34 41 38 27
TD 1 2 4 1
TD 2 5 2 1 3 3 7 2 3 3
PUNTERS No Yds
Lechler, OAK.................... 21 1033 Sepulveda, PIT................. 19 911 Scifres, SND .................... 16 732 Hodges, CLE..................... 29 1318 Podlesh, JAC.................... 16 719 Weatherford, NYJ ........... 27 1212 Huber, CIN ....................... 26 1165 McAfee, IND .................... 20 885 Moorman, BUF ................ 26 1152 B. Colquitt, DEN .............. 23 1009
PUNT RETURN No Yds Avg
McCluster, KAN..............6 142 23.7 Leonhard, NYJ ................9 118 13.1 Jac. Jones, HOU..............9 97 Mariani, TEN...................7 73 E. Royal, DEN..................9 92 Arenas, KAN...................9 89 Mi. Thomas, JAC...........11 107
10.8 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.7
LG 68 62 67 57 63 61 72 66 61 63
LG
94t 32 39 38 28 36 41
Avg 49.2 47.9 45.8 45.4 44.9 44.9 44.8 44.3 44.3 43.9
TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
NFCINDIVIDUALLEADERS QB’S
Vick, PHL .......................96 59 Cutler, CHI ...................102 68
Att Com Yds 799 912
Brees, NOR..................199 142 1410 Romo, DAL...................174 119 1346 Rodgers, GBY...............168 111 1233 M. Ryan, ATL ...............177 109 1165 Freeman, TAM.............116 69 Kolb, PHL.......................76 48
824 478
E. Manning, NYG .........174 112 1302 McNabb,WAS.............170 96
1315 RUSHERS Att
A. Peterson, MIN...........88 480 Bradshaw, NYG .............91 449 M. Turner, ATL ..............93 421 S. Jackson, STL..............98 398 L. McCoy, PHL................68 365 Gore, SNF.......................91 322 D.A. Williams, CAR........68 317 Forte, CHI ......................72 300
Yds Avg 5.45 4.93 4.53 4.06 5.37 3.54 4.66 4.17
TD 6 6 9 7 9 7 5 2 8 4
LG
80t 39 55
42t 46t 20
39t 68t
Int 0 3 5 5 6 3 3 1 8 3
TD 3 3 1 1 5 1 1 2
NORTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Chicago ............... 4 1 0 .800 92 74 Green Bay ........... 3 2 0 .600 119 89 Minnesota .......... 1 3 0 .250 63 67 Detroit ................ 1 4 0 .200 126 112
WEST W L T PCT. PF PA
Arizona ............... 3 2 0 .600 88 138 Seattle ................ 2 2 0 .500 75 77 St. Louis .............. 2 3 0 .400 83 96 San Francisco ...... 0 5 0 .000 76 130
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
1 p.m., WTTG-5,WBFF-45, Eagles by 21/2
FalconsWRRoddyWhite, above, has posted consecutive 100-yard receiving games for the fifth time in his career.Meantime,RBMichaelTurner is coming off a season-best 140-yard effort. Playingwith a broken rib,EaglesRBLeSean McCoy had 138 yards fromscrimmage lastweek.
SMARTERSTATS:TheEagles have the best red zone offense in theNFL; the Falcons are 23rd in red zone defense by FootballOutsidersmeasure. Philly’s defense is dead last in red zone defense, soAtlantamight be able to take advantage. Philly ranks 30th in offensiveAdjusted SackRate (sacks plus intentional grounding penalties per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent).
USERS PICKINGTHE FALCONS 57%
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
4:15 p.m.,WTTG-5, WBFF-45, Vikings by 11/2
Turnovers have been a big problem for these expected contenders. The Cowboys bring a minus-4 differential and the Vikings a minus-6, the second-worst mark in the league. Vikings QB Brett Favre, above, fighting tendinitis in his throwing elbow, has fallen to 30th in the NFL in passer rating, with a 67.
SMARTER STATS: The Vikings rank 28th on offense by Football Outsiders’ metric. They’re 10th when running the ball and 29th in the passing game. Before we blame the absence of WRSidney Rice, remember that when Favre was at his best in Green Bay, he never had a receiver with Rice’s talent—and certainly never one with the talent ofWRRandyMoss.
USERS PICKING THE VIKINGS 64% SMARTER STATS
This game will most likely come down to which quarterback is better, because neither team will do much on the ground. The Seahawks rank second in the league behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in Football Outsiders’ run defense metrics, and the Bears rank fourth.
Most 2010 impressions of New York’s defense are based on the sack- fest they gave Jay Cutler, but the G-Men have the league’s best Pass Defense by Football Outsiders’ metric and they’re the best team in traditional total defense and pass defense.
Rookie Colt McCoy could be in for a major whomping by Pittsburgh’s ravenous defense. Pittsburgh’s QB situation is far more enviable. Ben Roethlisberger comes back to the NFL against a Browns defense that has been absolutely destroyed by the passing game.
sacks.
Green Bay’s passing offense is tied for second with several other NFL teams with nine touchdowns through the air, but Aaron Rodgers should not expect much to happen for him in the red zone, where the Miami defense is stellar.
The 2010 Chargers may have the worst special teams in NFL history. In Football Outsiders’ measure of above- or below-average performance on field goals/extra points, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, and punt returns, the Chargers have the worst single-season rating ever.
It’s pretty clear that the absence of Reggie Bush has seriously affected Coach Sean Payton’s ability to employ effective formation diversity. Last year’s under-the-radar Saints rushing attack has also been muted.
Watch what Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers did in K.C.’s close loss to the Colts last Sunday, and store his name away in your memory banks. He’s the next great one at his position. You want an upset special? This could be it.
The Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL against No. 1 receivers and tight ends. If the 49ers can’t take advantage of that with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis on their roster, the entire coaching staff should be fired, and Alex Smith sent to the Edmonton Eskimos.
Have the Broncos finally met the Kryptonite for their powerful passing game in that dominant Jets defense? Denver’s real concern should be New York’s run game. The Jets have the NFL’s best run-blocking line and the Denver front seven ranks 25th.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN, Titans by 3
Their last game featured a career-high 225 yards rushing by Tennessee RB Chris Johnson, above, and a career-high 177 yards by Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Jaguars C BradMeester will break the franchise record for career starts withNo. 151.
SMARTER STATS: In a league full of underreported stories, the Titans’ defense may be the most impressive of all. They currently rank fourth by Football Outsiders measure, are tremendous against the pass and are tearing up opposing offensive lines. It won’t help Jacksonville TEMarcedes Lewis that the Titans have the second-best defense against those who play his position.
USERS PICKING THE TITANS 79% USER PICKS
93% picked the Bears
93% picked the Giants
98% picked the Steelers
63% picked the Packers
85% picked the Chargers
79% picked the Saints
68% picked the Texans
68% picked the 49ers
80% picked the Jets
RUSHERS RECEIVERS
Att
Bra. Jackson, GBY .........55 252 Snelling, ATL .................53 244
Yds Avg 4.58 4.60
No Yds Avg
R. White, ATL ...............37 463 12.5 H. Nicks, NYG................33 409 12.4 Amendola, STL .............33 303 Gore, SNF......................33 284
9.2 8.6
Austin, DAL ..................31 474 15.3 Sa. Moss,WAS.............29 408 14.1 St. Smith, NYG .............28 300 10.7 L. McCoy, PHL...............28 218
7.8
Fitzgerald, ARI..............26 301 11.6 Pettigrew, DET.............26 275 10.6
PUNTERS No Yds
Donn. Jones, STL............. 27 1286 Rocca, PHL....................... 28 1315 Morstead, NOR................ 19 892 A. Lee, SNF...................... 25 1145
LG 71 30
LG
45t 31t 36 41
69t 56 45 31 29 35
LG 63 63 58 60
TD 1 2
TD 3 6 0 2 2 1 1 0 2 1
Avg 47.6 47.0 46.9 45.8
PUNTERS
No
Yds
Dodge, NYG ..................... 19 850 Masthay, GBY.................. 19 844 Be. Graham, ARI.............. 27 1180 N. Harris, DET.................. 24 1048 J. Baker, CAR................... 30 1309 Kluwe, MIN...................... 21 911
PUNT RETURN No Yds Avg
G. Tate, SEA....................8 144 18.0 D. Hester, CHI...............14 179 12.8 Tr. Williams, GBY.........11 128 11.6 D. Bryant, DAL................8 90 Amendola, STL .............12 105 Logan, DET......................9 76 Camarillo, MIN................8 65 De. Jackson, PHL ............9 72 Spurlock, TAM................8 62 Munnerlyn, CAR ...........10 74
11.3 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.4
LG 64 58 62 66 57 59
LG 63
62t 52
62t 24 17 22 22 23 28
Avg 44.7 44.4 43.7 43.7 43.6 43.4
TD 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
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