Our man in Asia Hunter Marston ’07 served in the US Embassy in Ran- goon and was a senior contributor to the Indo-Pacific Review. He holds an MA in Southeast Asia studies from the University of Washington and was named a 2012 Harold Rosenthal Fellow in International Relations. From his writings:
Thailand, Feb. 2015 January’s impeachment of deposed prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and the suppression of her Pheu Thai party may lead to further political unrest. The regime of Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who assumed power following a military coup in May 2014, is merely delaying a final political reckoning. In the event of an eventual return to elections, his Yellow Shirts and the People’s Alliance for Democracy will still lack a majority consensus to govern. Yingluck’s brother Thaksin Shinawatra, who was elected in 2001, was overthrown in a coup in 2006 and has since resided in Dubai to avoid cor- ruption charges. Yet he continues to exer- cise influence from afar. Backing from his Red Shirts followers helped his sister win the elections in 2011. She largely continued his populist policies, widely favored by the rural north, and un- surprisingly her im-
Myanmar, Dec. 2014 On his trip to Myanmar, President Barack Obama embraced opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, signaling strong US sup- port for continued reforms. Since Myanmar’s political open- ing in 2010, tentative reforms have stalled, but President Thein Sein has empowered a small cadre of progressives who may be able to keep reforms on track if they can check the influence of the military.
Opponents of the 2008 constitution are focused on the clauses that grant the military 25 percent of seats in par - liament and on article 436, which requires a 75% vote to amend constitutional clauses. Meanwhile, the first multi - party elections since 2011 will take place later this year. Suu Kyi’s party, which won in 1990 but was denied power by the military regime, will likely sweep the elections under plurali- ty voting. Ethnic parties realize that a national vote may ac- cord them a slim margin of seats according to their percent- age of the population. The incumbent party, a conglomeration of for- mer army officers that currently holds more than 67% of elected seats in parliament, stands to lose the most. This is no time to let up the pressure on Myanmar’s leaders to continue reforms.
HUNTER MARSTON ’07 ANALYZES THE POLITICS, ECONOMIES, AND INTER - CONNECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES.
peachment cited similar corruption charges as those leveled against him. With the Shinawatra political machine temporarily de- railed, the military has centralized its power and postponed elections, most likely until at least 2016. Thailand has a long history of domestic turmoil followed by military coups and royal intervention. This time, the Yellow Shirts and the military may have gone too far. Daring the Red Shirts to give up their demands for political representation by the Pheu Thai majority is a dangerous calculus. Add a much- anticipated royal transition—King Bhumibol Adulyadej is 87 and reputedly ailing—and the sum is a political catas - trophe in the making.
Thai leaders would do well to start thinking more prag- matically about political power-sharing.
Vietnam, May 2014 News coverage has fo- cused on corruption and inept state-owned enterprises in Vietnam, but the central govern-
ment has been making concerted efforts to speed up privati- zation of SOEs and tackle graft among the ruling elites. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who came under pres- sure for economic mismanagement and systemic corrup- tion, has survived the worst of his political challenges by making concessions to moderates in the National Assembly and ministers responsible for steering economic policy. Elite competition, coupled with joint initiatives by the World Bank and the Vietnamese government, seems to be deter- ring graft. Thirty state-owned companies were restructured in 2013 and another 45 are expected this year, with plans to withdraw state assets from another 74 by 2015. With Vietnam’s macroeconomic environment looking its soundest in a decade, now may be a good time for foreign investors to reassess their outlook on Vietnam.
34 SCOPE SPRING 2015
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