WEATHER DOWNTIME
FEATURE SPONSOR
WEATHER INTELLIGENCE SUPPORTING DOWNTIME PLANNING
The offshore community is very aware of weather conditions, but the critical information required varies depending on how the weather will affect operations. Operations and logistics managers often ask when it is safe to work. Can the job be completed on time, in full and to budget?
Understanding the impacts the weather forecast can have on operations can help assist in answering those questions, for example understanding how a vessel will respond in an irregular sea-state for crew well-being and transfers.
IMPACT FORECASTING Impact forecasting seeks to develop analysis and tools that translate weather data into information that directly supports customer decision-making. For example, the weather warnings provided by the Met Office through its website and the media are impact-based, as they are related to the disruption that might be experienced for the relevant weather type – whether it is rain, snow, fog, ice or wind – combined with the likelihood of the event happening.
Significant investment into applied science sits behind Met Office research – both into the impact of the weather, as well as the development of tools and applications to enable the provision of operational services for customers. In addition, the applied science team is tasked with responding to ad-hoc and routine requests from clients and has the capability to provide historical data and analyses.
HISTORICAL DATA
Historical data, sometimes known as hindcast, can provide a critical first-step in predicting ‘up-time’ or the probability of potential delays to offshore projects. Detailed analyses based around operational thresholds can help determine how long
the wait for a required weather window may be at any given point. A detailed understanding of operational requirements, combined with science consultancy of this nature, can aid medium to long-term operational planning, ensuring safety and reducing the costs associated with disrupted or aborted operations.
Shorter-term planning can benefit from ensemble forecasts, which estimate the risks of weather events and aid decision- making at an operational level. By combining several individual forecasts, an ensemble forecast provides an indication of the likelihood of weather events occurring at a particular time.
THE COST BENEFIT OF ACCURATE WEATHER, WHEN PLANNING FOR DOWNTIME
In-depth knowledge of the metocean environment assists the offshore wind energy community. Forecaster and consultancy supported weather solutions can benefit offshore windfarms by optimising downtime and helping minimise costs. The Met office can provide a critical role by giving the training, support and data required to pin-point and plan for periods of downtime, ensuring safety and cost efficiencies.
CASE STUDY
An example of this is the work undertaken by the Met Office for RES Centrica who wanted help in port-selection by comparing the downtime statistics between two routes from different harbours to a windfarm. The analysis considered the weather limits that were imposed on vessels leaving the port as well as the weather limits on the transit to the windfarm. Results showed that the port furthest away was actually the best one to use due to the strict weather limits at the alternative, nearer port.
MARINE CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE – WORKING WITH INDUSTRY Working in partnership with industry experts ensures the relevance of services from its Marine Centre of Excellence, the Met Office offers a range of vital services to the offshore wind industry, both around the UK and internationally.
Over the past 40 years, they have gained an expert understanding of how weather and climate can impact offshore oil & gas operations and offshore renewable energy projects. From the financial costs resulting from severe weather, to ensuring the wellbeing and safety of employees, strong partnerships with industry and the benefit of local knowledge, ensures potential forecasting solutions and insights are relevant to customer needs.
As a consequence, there is a greater understanding of the need for confidence in forecast accuracy and scientific integrity and the very real need for back up support. During times of weather-sensitive operations, having a meteorologist at hand can help ensure safety and save costs, enabling the decision maker to make an informed decision in marginal situations ensuring the most appropriate action is taken.
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www.windenergynetwork.co.uk
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