SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2010
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The World A19 U.S., NATO to announce ‘transition’ strategy in Afghanistan war BY KAREN DEYOUNG The Obama administration
and its NATO allies will declare late this week that the war in Afghanistan has made sufficient progress to begin turning security control over to its government by spring, months before the admin- istration’s July deadline to start withdrawing U.S. troops, accord- ing toU.S. and European officials. Even as it announces the “tran-
sition” process, which will not im- mediately include troop with- drawals, NATO will also state its intention to keep combat troops in Afghanistan until 2014, a date originally set by AfghanPresident Hamid Karzai. The seemingly contradictory messages, in communiques and agreements to be released at NATO’s upcoming summit in Lis- bon, are intended to reassureU.S. and European audiences that the process of ending the war has begun. At the same time, the coalition
wants to signal to the Taliban — along with Afghans and regional partners who fear a coalition withdrawal, and Republicans in Congress who oppose it — that they are not leavinganytime soon. “We have to assemble a coher-
ent narrative . . . that everyone buys into,” said a senior adminis- tration official, one of severalwho discussed ongoing alliance nego- tiations on the condition of ano- nymity. An “enduring partnership” agreement being negotiated be- tweenNATOandAfghanistanwill extend security support indefi- nitely. A bilateral U.S.-Afghani- stan accord, similar to the “strate- gic framework” signed with Iraq when troop-withdrawal dead- lines were set there in 2008, will promiselong-termeconomic,dip- lomatic and security cooperation andis tobecompletedbyJanuary. For the administration, the agreements are a way to draw domestic attention away from President Obama’s controversial July withdrawal pledge and to- ward a more “strategic” plan, offi- cials said. Butastheystrive foracommon
strategy, each coalition member —including theUnited States—is conducting its own internal as- sessment of the Afghanistan mis- sion amid high domestic disap- proval of the war and pressure to justify its continuance. The ad- ministrationisplanningaDecem- ber review of the increase in U.S. military and civilian forces that Obamaannounced last year. The “surge” strategy was cho-
sen after lengthy debates inwhich some officials, including Vice
“We have to assemble a coherent narrative.” —Senior administration official
President Biden, favored narrow- ing the U.S. mission to attacks against al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Afghanistan andPakistan. Oth- ers, including the military, suc- cessfully argued for a more ex- panded counterinsurgency strat- egy, with major governance and development components, in ad- dition to providing security for Afghan civilians. “There are the same divisions
as last fall,” one official said. “No- body has changed their view.”
‘Different conclusions’ Datanowbeingcollectedbythe
WhiteHouseonboth militaryand civilian progress in Afghanistan and Pakistan offer support for a range of conflicting opinions. Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top coalition commander in Afghani- stan, toldObamain early Septem- ber thathe expects to report prog- ress in several areas, including large numbers of mid-level Tali- ban commanders on the ground killed or captured, clearance of Taliban strongholds around Kan- dahar and the establishment of functioning governance, develop- ment of nonmilitary local defense forces, and the reintegration and reconciliation with someTaliban. U.S. military and civilian lead-
ers have claimed major successes in clearing operations around
Kandahar,butfear those gains are being jeopardized by the failure of the Karzai government to provide competent civilian officials and services. If the local population is not satisfied, U.S. officials have said, it will show little resistance to Taliban fighters expected to return with warm weather in the spring. The military, citing intelligence indicating that many Taliban fighters are unhappy with their ownleadership and growing wea- ry of the fight, has warned that time is short to consolidate the progress they have made. But U.S. intelligence agencies
have compiled a divergent narra- tive of some of the facts on the ground. While agreeing that U.S. forces have killed large numbers of mid-level Taliban, they see no real change in insurgent capabili- ties, with commanders and fight- ers being quickly replaced. To some extent, one official
said, different parts of the govern- ment “come to different conclu- sions because we want to.” Petra- eushassaid that intelligence anal- ysis is retrospective and too slow to reflect the fast-moving situa- tion, the official said, while the intelligence agencies have said the military is trying to justify its ongoing mission and limit the promised withdrawals. “There is no intention in the
White House to either elevate or quash the intelligence analysis,” this official said. “But there is a group that would like less empha- sis on this.” The intelligence community,
said another official, “thinks Pe- traeus is full of it.” But in high-lev- el sessions since September, the general’s assessments have re- mainedunchallenged.“Noonear- gues with Petraeus in front of the president,” this official said. “A lot depends on what part of
the elephant you’re touching,” said one member of the White House group meeting almost dai- ly to pore over incoming review reports. “Petraeus can point to some real progress in a number of the purely military areas. Other people will look and see in other areas . . . that things may be more difficult.” Theobjective,hesaid, is “trying
to resolve conflicts, asking hard questions, trying to clear up dis- crepancies and present the most comprehensive picture of what webelieve is happening.”
The drawdown pledge Policy options will not be part
of the review, officials said. Rath- er,theprincipals willbepresented with a list of areas in which deci- sions will have to be made. One of the questions to be addressed by Obama, Biden and top national security officials in the spring is how many troops to withdraw, and from where. Obama has made some con-
verts among those who at first opposed a public withdrawal pledge. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, who initially believed the July withdrawal pledge “de- nied us flexibility,” said he changedhis positionand“cameto believe this was the right deci- sion” after Obama promised to base any U.S. drawdown on “con- ditions on the ground.” “If the Taliban are telling their
supporters and their soldiers to- day, the Americans are leaving in July of 2011, they’re going to dis- cover very quickly in August and September of 2011we’re still there and we’re still out there killing,” Gates said in a Tuesday interview withABCNews’s “Nightline.” Others remain unconvinced.
“It sends the wrong message, and it created a problem,” Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said of the July deadline at a Wednesday news conference in Afghanistan. In an interview Thursday at
NATO headquarters in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen drew sharp dis- tinctions between an alliance commitment to begin the “transi- tion” to Afghan security control, decisions by Petraeus on where initial transitions should occur and decisions by member nations to withdrawtheir troops. NATO country leaders gath-
ered in Lisbon will receive a prov- ince-by-province update on the situation in Afghanistan from Pe- traeus, including the training of Afghan soldiers and police that
Buy it. Sell it. Introducing the new
will underpin assessments of whether they are able to confront theTaliban in some provinces. “Thesummitwill takethepolit-
ical decision,” Rasmussen said, “and then the specific [transition] decisions will come in theater.”
Initiating process Under the process about to be
set in motion, the first tranche of proposed transition provinces or districts will be approved by the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s
political-decision-making body, then by the Afghan government. Coalition troops being freed by thehandoverof responsibilities to Afghan forces will then be rede- ployed to other areas or tasks where they are still needed. Several candidates for transi-
tion have already been suggested. France, which fields nearly 4,000 troops in Afghanistan, has pro- posed a transfer of its forces from the Surobi district in Kabul prov- ince to nearby Kapisa province.
InaPentagon briefingWednes-
day, Army Col. William Roy, a Vermont National Guard com- mander in central Afghanistan, said the local security forces he works with in Bamiyan province had already “taken the lead in responsibility for security” and that those in Parwan province would soon be ready to do so. New NATO member commit-
ments for additional trainers will also be announced at the summit, which Karzai will attend. Canadi-
an PrimeMinister StephenHarp- er said Thursday that his country would provide several hundred additional trainers after the scheduled departure of Canada’s combat troops next summer. NATO officials are hoping for a similar pledge from the Nether- lands, which withdrewits combat troops this year.
deyoungk@washpost.com
Correspondent Edward Cody contributed from Brussels.
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