SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2010
KLMNO
Difficulty on Iran nuclear talks is a bad omen, diplomats warn
Meeting is set with no agreement on topic, venue or length
BY GLENN KESSLER For four months, European
Union foreign policy chief Cathe- rine Ashton and Iranian negotia- tor Saeed Jalili traded letters try- ing to pin down a time and place for Iran to meet with a group of powerful countries concerned about its nuclear program. Late last week, they appeared to have settledona startdate:Dec. 5. But they have yet to agree on a
venue, a length for the talks or the subject. Iran says it is willing to talk about everything but its ura- nium enrichment program. The other countries — the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany — want to talkmostly about the nuclear pro- gram. The difficulty in restarting the
talks,which have been on hold for more than a year, doesn’t bode well, analysts anddiplomats say. The latest round ofU.N. Securi-
ty Council sanctions, which by all accounts have been more crip- pling than anticipated, was in- tended to force Tehran to begin negotiating seriously about itsnu- clear program. But Iranian offi- cials, insisting that the programis for peaceful energy purposes, have given little indication they are interestedinnegotiating. U.S.officials say Iran’swell-doc-
umented problemswith its urani- umenrichment programthis year have greatly reduced concerns that Iranisonthebrinkofproduc- ing anuclearweapon, giving extra time to strike adeal. Iran is enriching uraniumwith
aPakistaniversionofahalf-centu- ry-old Dutch design, and “the Ira- nians now have discovered that it’s a very poormachine,” a senior administration official said, speaking on the condition of ano- nymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “It’sprone tobreaking down. They’ve had hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of these things breakdown.” The enrichment program ap-
parently plateaued at just under 4,000 active centrifuges, he add- ed. “Theycouldinstallalotmoreif theywanted to, but they’ve decid- ed that this machine is a loser, so that’s why they stopped,” he said, adding that the Iranians appear to havehadlittle successwithamore advanceddesign. Yet the rise of a Republican
majority in the House of Repre- sentatives could bring new politi- cal pressure to bear on the admin- istration, forcing it to harden its stanceonIranandmakingitmore difficult to strike adeal. In the past week, senior GOP
figureshavebeenpushingtougher steps. Ilena Ros-Lehtinen, the in- coming chairwoman of theHouse Foreign Affairs Committee, told Reuters that “if the country with whom we are negotiating with and playing diplomatic niceties with gets the feeling that they can string us along and have no ac- tions take place, I think that’s to the detriment of the United States.” She warned against con- veying a “sense ofweakness and a lack of resolve.” Although the Obama adminis-
tration has publicly stressed its interest in negotiations, some ad- ministrationofficials andadvisers saytheythinkthepresidentwould usemilitaryforcetosetbackIran’s nuclear program if it appeared it was on the verge of having weap- ons capability. Some analysts say they think
thetoughtalkreduceschancesofa successful negotiation. “The stick side has been emphasized so much that it is hard for Iran to hear anything positive,” said Paul R.Pillar,national intelligenceoffi- cer for Near East and South Asia from2000to 2005,who teaches at Georgetown University. He said military actionwouldbe “anenor- mous blunder with huge conse- quences for theUnitedStates.” The coming talks will also be
complicatedbyafailedagreement concerning amedical research re- actor inTehran, the centerpiece of the talks last year. At the time, the deal looked like
creative diplomacy. Iranian nego- tiators had agreed in principle to transfer more than 2,600 pounds of low-enriched uranium out of the country so that Russia and
France could convert it into the specialized fuel cells for the reac- tor. The United States would help improve safety at the reactor, whichmakesmedical isotopes for cancerpatients. But thedeal fellapartas Iranian
officials backed away, suggesting that U.S. crowing about its achievement had hurt Iranian pride. Iran renegotiated the deal with Turkey and Brazil, but that pact was rejected by the other powers. NowIranhas indicatedthat the
only part of its nuclear programit iswilling todiscuss is the research reactor instead of the centrifuge facility at Natanz, which is the source of international concern. Moreover, Iran has begun enrich- ing some uranium to 19.75 per- cent, bringing it a step closer to weapons-grade, because that is the level needed for the medical isotope facility. Because Iran has built up its
stockpile since the deal fell apart, the United States and the other countries have agreed to demand substantially more enriched ura- niumfromIranthis time.Butana- lysts point out that 2,600 pounds would fulfill Iran’s requirements at the researchreactor for thenext 20 years, making it unclear why Iran would have any incentive to giveupmore. Ivanka Barzashka, a research
associate at the Federation of AmericanScientists, saidIranwill perceive the West as once again moving the goal posts. She said it was more important to quickly strike a deal that results in Iran giving up the 66 pounds of the 19.75 percent uraniumit had pro- duced and enough low-enriched uranium, about 2,200 pounds, to producetherestof thefuelneeded by the reactor. The “political selling point” of
Irangivingupenoughuraniumso it did not have enough for a bomb hasbeenrenderedmeaninglessby Iran’s continuedproductionof en- riched uranium in the past year, she said. “Themoreimportant thingis to
get this settled,” said IvanOelrich, senior fellow at the federation. “We should just clear the decks to get the talks going.”
kesslerg@washpost.com
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