“When the tanker TS Sola called the officer of the watch on Helge Ingstad over the radio to request a change of course, the officer of the watch did not understand that the tanker was moving and that there was a risk of collision.
In addition, the Norwegian Safety Investigation Authority’s first report after the accident states that Fedje Vessel Traffic Service Centre’s automatic plotting, warning and alarm functions were not good enough.
“AI can provide more information about the surroundings and therefore better understanding of the situation, assuming that the systems are actually used and are user-friendly. However, striking a good balance between the manual control performed by a human operator and autonomous control is demanding,” says Utne.
Low level
Utne is of the opinion that autonomy development is still at a relatively low level of maturity, despite the recent acceleration in the use of artificial intelligence.
“It is not uncommon for the people designing and programming the systems to spend a long time working on control systems and algorithms, only for risk analyses to be introduced late in the development process,” says Utne.
What is unique about the ORCAS and UNLOCK research projects is that advanced risk analyses and models form the basis for developing algorithms in the early programming phase of the control system. As a result, the risk analyses become more integrated into the system because functions are actually created that enable robots to make safer decisions.
“I am not aware of any others who are working in this way, even though many people are talking about AI, autonomy and risk. There has been no systematic or professional basis for understanding what a risk analyst should contribute to the programming of autonomous systems. It seems there is a bit of a silo mentality,” says Utne.
Important to involve risk analysts
As a researcher at NTNU AMOS, the Centre for Autonomous Marine Operations and Systems, she found that researchers were able to collaborate across disciplines. This was very important for the development of her research.
“Cyberneticists and AI experts may struggle a little to understand what risk analysts can contribute, but AMOS was quick to understand the importance of risk management expertise and working in an interdisciplinary manner,” she said.
The Helge Ingstad accident showed us just how complex causal relationships and risk factors can be.”
Although the development of a robot’s understanding of risk is primarily for application in marine areas, the methods and results can also be used on land and in the air.
“A lot of good research takes place at the intersection of different disciplines, and it requires creative and open-minded people,” she said.
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THE REPORT | SEP 2024 | ISSUE 109 | 123
“That is what makes systems smarter. Risk models provide a more holistic picture and can contribute to better situational awareness, rather than creating algorithms that focus on minimum distances for example,” she said. “Why not vary things and use different risk models that determine whether a vessel should speed up or slow down, and that take multiple factors into account – such as the weather forecast?”
The next generation of frigates must also be able to navigate optically in manual mode, but hopefully, will also have more intelligent systems that can provide better warnings if the people on board do not realize they are on a collision course with another ship.
“More intelligent systems will better understand possible risk factors way before they might actually occur – where death is the ultimate risk factor,” Utne said.
Risk is about more than just distance Risk models have been created in the ORCAS and UNLOCK projects. The models represent risks associated with various operations and systems, and these are then linked to ways in which vessels are controlled.
“We have conducted simulations with real vessels, and carried out experiments on Grethe – an unmanned surface vessel owned by NTNU’s Department of Marine Technology," says Utne.
The next step is to further develop and test the models and algorithms more thoroughly in field studies and simultaneously with several other vessels. There is also a need to improve the situational awareness of the human operators. Utne has recently received an ERC grant of NOK 29 million to conduct research on this.
“Including risk management experts when creating decision systems for robots is something new. One typical risk factor already being used by many people working with control and artificial intelligence is the distance between vessels, but risk is about much more than just that,” says Utne.
For example, Utne mentions the risks of running aground, fire, capsizing, and sinking. Therefore, if these types of incidents are to be prevented from happening, measuring the distance between ships is simply not enough.
“The Helge Ingstad accident showed us just how complex causal relationships and risk factors can be,” she said.
Utne believes there is a need for a much more systematic approach to identifying, analysing, and modelling risk factors.
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