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Changes in food distribution Hunger is to some degree a function of available calories, but more importantly the distribution of these calories. Income distribution plays a key role in food distribution (Wanner et al. 2014; Hasegawa et al. 2015). In their analysis, Hasegawa et al. (2015) conclude that future developments in global hunger are mostly determined by population growth, inequality in food distribution and per capita domestic food production. Improving access to food for the poorest households significantly reduces the required increase in food production to feed the global population in 2050 (van Vuuren et al. 2015). Also avoiding food waste reduces demand for cropland and could still allow for meat consumption, albeit at a lower rate than current-trend projections (Röös et al. 2017).


In baseline scenarios, childhood stunting and wasting are also projected to decrease, but not enough to achieve the SDG target of elimination by 2030 (Global Burden of Disease [GBD] 2015 SDG Collaborators 2016; GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators (2017). Meanwhile, the prevalence of overweight children has been increasing over the past 15 years (GBD 2015 SDG Collaborators 2016): fewer than 5 per cent of countries are projected to achieve the SDG target for overweight children (GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators 2017). Achieving these targets therefore requires accelerated action on nutrition as well as the more distal drivers of poor health outcomes – poverty, low levels of education and health spending, as well as conflict (GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators 2017; see also Section 22.3.5).


Maintaining terrestrial biodiversity The baseline scenarios covered in Chapter 21 show a further decline in biodiversity. Some scenarios have been published that specifically look into how to halt biodiversity loss (e.g. van Vuuren et al. 2015; Obersteiner et al. 2016; Kok et al. 2018; Leclere et al. 2018). These scenarios show that, in addition to preserving terrestrial biodiversity in protected areas, it will be at least as important to reduce the external drivers that lead to loss of biodiversity such as expansion of land use, climate change and expansion of infrastructure. We briefly discuss some of these elements below. All-in-all, the scenario literature suggests that pathways to halting biodiversity loss exist – but that such scenarios will be difficult to implement.


Protecting terrestrial ecosystems Protected areas are a key land management conservation tool. Syntheses have demonstrated that, compared with other locations, the diversity of species within protected areas tends to be 10 per cent greater and the abundance of species 15 per cent greater (Coetzee, Gaston and Chown 2014; Gray et al. 2016). Also, habitat conversion rates are 7 per cent lower within protected areas (Geldmann et al. 2013). While the CBD’s Aichi Target 11 suggests a 17 per cent coverage target, in 2016 protected areas occupied 14.6 per cent of the terrestrial land area. As shown in Chapter 21, current trends will lead to a dramatic loss of biodiversity. Therefore, coordinated international action is urgently needed to balance land-use decision-making and biodiversity conservation. Expansion of the protected land area by 5 per cent in a well-designed way could lead to a significant increase in the protection of biodiversity (Pollock, Thuiller and Jetz 2017). Many scenarios in the literature have explicit assumptions on protected area trends. However, protected area expansion should not be the only consideration and should not come at the expense of effective management of current protected areas (Barnes et al.


2018). Furthermore, environmental policy outside of the formal protected areas network is of critical importance.


Land ownership


Land ownership has implications for land management and can therefore have implications for biodiversity residing on it. For example, private versus publicly owned lands have different bird species compositions (Maslo, Lockwood and Leu 2015) and private temperate forests contain a greater diversity and density of microhabitats that can support greater biodiversity (Johann and Schaich 2016). Over one-quarter of the whole terrestrial land surface is managed or under the tenure rights of indigenous groups and this land intersects with approximately 40 per cent of protected areas and ecologically intact landscapes (Garnett et al. 2018). In addition to public and private land ownership, local committees, and indigenous peoples’ land rights and the manner in which they manage that land is therefore likely to be essential to meeting local and global conservation goals. Assessing the role of land ownership in pathways towards sustainability beyond this is difficult, however, because land ownership is seldom incorporated explicitly into scenario exercises.


Land-use planning Land-use planning involves the systematic assessment of environmental, economic and social impacts of the range of potential uses of land in order to decide on the optimal pattern of land use. Land-use planning and systematic conservation planning has seldom been explored explicitly as a tool in global scenarios. The most noteworthy exceptions are the recent scenarios by Leclere et al. (2018) that use the biodiversity value of land areas to determine optimal land use and also can inform GEO assessments in the future. They find that such an approach in land-use planning can indeed contribute to a strategy that aims to halve biodiversity loss.


Forest management


Meta-analysis shows that different categories of forest management types have different implications for biodiversity loss, with selection and retention systems having the least detrimental effect on species diversity, while timber and fuelwood plantations have the worst effect (Chaudhary et al. 2016). Although forest management practices are not always explicitly represented in scenario simulations, studies suggest that consistent implementation of any single management regime results in suboptimal biodiversity outcomes compared with an optimal combination of management regimes (Monkkonen et al. 2014).


Significant trade-offs across the targets A number of trade-offs can be identified between specific measures and the various targets within this cluster. Three important ones are as follows.


v Increases in cropland area can help reduce hunger by enabling increased food production. This expansion is included in many of the scenarios in the literature (e.g. Tilman et al. 2011; Bajželj et al. 2014; Tilman and Clark 2014; Popp et al. 2017). However, expansion of cropland area can lead to clearing of natural lands and increased land-use change emissions, which have implications for biodiversity, land degradation and climate change. Note that limiting the expansion of cropland area has implications for crop yields, fertilizer use and energy crop


Pathways toward Sustainable Development 519


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