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Figure 21.2: Future projections of the global population (left) and urbanization (right) Population
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1990 2000 History UN medium 2010
SSP2 UN range 2030 2040 SSP3 SSP range 2050 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1990 2000
SSP2 SSP range Source: SSP projections (Jiang and O’Neill 2017; Samir and Lutz 2017); UN projections (United Nations 2014; United Nations 2017).
2050, with an increase of nearly 90 per cent in Africa and Asia (United Nations 2014). Under SSP3, assumptions on slow economic development coincide with a slower urbanization rate. Still, as total population growth is much higher, the urban population is projected to increase significantly.
Economic development In the past 30 years, the world economy grew on average by 3.5 per cent per year, a rate buoyed by strong economic growth in emerging economies in Asia (see Section 2.4). Most economic institutes only publish projections for the coming decade or shorter. In fact, most long-term economic projections are developed as part of environmental
Figure 21.3: Future projections of total GDP per region under SSP2 (left) and global GDP under SSP2 and SSP3 (right)
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
1990 2000 2010 2020
Russia and Central Asia Year
Middle East and Africa Latin America and Caribbean Asia
Source: Dellink et al. (2017). Future Developments Without Targeted Policies 491 2030 2040 2050