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Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (2018). Land Degradation and Restoration Assessment. Bonn. https://www.ipbes.net/system/tdf/ipbes_6_inf_1_ rev.1_2.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=16514.


International Energy Agency (2016). World Energy Outlook 2016. Paris. https://webstore.iea.org/ world-energy-outlook-2016.


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International Energy Agency (2017b). Energy Access Outlook 2017: From Poverty to Prosperity. Paris. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_ EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf.


Jiang, L. and O’Neill, B.C. (2017). Global urbanization projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways. Global Environmental Change 42, 193-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. gloenvcha.2015.03.008.


Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., Heyes, C., Purohit, P., Cofala, J., Rafaj, P. et al. (2017). Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17(14), 8681-8723. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8681-2017.


Kok, M.T.J., Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., van Eerdt, M., Janse, J., Mandryk, M. et al. (2018). Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation: A global scenario- study. Biological Conservation 221, 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.003.


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Lam, V.W.Y., Cheung, W.W.L., Reygondeau, G. and Sumaila, U.R. (2016). Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change. Scientific Reports 6, 32607. https://doi.org/10.1038/ srep32607.


Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L. et al. (2015). Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models. Biogeosciences 12, 6955-6984. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015.


Leadley, P.W., Krug, C.B., Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Sumaila U.R., Walpole, M. et al. (2014). Progress Towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets: An Assessment of Biodiversity Trends, Policy Scenarios and Key Actions. CBD Technical Series. Montreal: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. https://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/cbd-ts-78-en.pdf.


Ligtvoet, W., Bouwman, A., Knoop, J., de Bruin, S., Nabielek, K., Huitzing, H. et al. (2018). The Geography of Future Water Challenges. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2018-the-geography-of-future- water-challenges-2920.pdf.


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Lucas, P.L., Dagnachew, A.G. and Hof, A.F. (2017). Towards Universal Electricity Access in Sub- Saharan Africa: A Quantitative Analysis of Technology and Investment Requirements. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/ publicaties/pbl-2017-towards-universal-electricity-access-in-sub-saharan-africa-1952.pdf.


Lucas, P.L., Hilderink, H.B.M., Janssen, P., Samir, K.C., Niessen, L.W. and van Vuuren, D.P. (2018). Future Impacts of Environmental Factors on Achieving The SDG Target On Child Mortality – A Synergistic Assessment. PBL Working Paper 24. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2018-future-impacts-of- environmental-factors-on-achieving-the-sdg-target-on-child-mortality.pdf.


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Mara, D. and Evans, B. (2018). The sanitation and hygiene targets of the sustainable development goals: Scope and challenges. Journal of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for Development 8(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2017.048.


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Melnychuk, M.C., Peterson, E., Elliott, M. and Hilborn, R. (2017). Fisheries management impacts on target species status. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(1), 178-183. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1609915114.


Meybeck, M. (1982). Carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous transport by world rivers. American Journal of Science 282, 401-450.


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Mogollón, J.M., Lassaletta, L., Beusen, A.H.W., van Grinsven, H.J.M., Westhoek, H. and Bouwman, A.F. (2018a). Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters 13(4). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ aab212.


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Mouratiadou, I., Biewald, A., Pehl, M., Bonsch, M., Baumstark, L., Klein, D. et al. (2016). The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environmental Science and Policy 64, 48-58. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.06.007.


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Murray, C.J.L., Barber, R.M., Foreman, K.J., Ozgoren, A.A., Abd-Allah, F., Abera, S.F. et al. (2015). Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition. The Lancet 386(10009), 2145-2191. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61340-X.


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Newbold, T., Hudson, L.N., Hil, S.L.L., Contu, S., Lysenko, I., Senior, R.A. et al. (2015). Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity. Nature 520, 45-50. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14324.


Newbold, T. (2018). Future effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate community diversity under different scenarios. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 285(1881). https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.0792.


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O’Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K.L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D.S. et al. (2017). The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st Global Environmental Change 42, 169-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004.


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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2016). The Economic Consequences of Outdoor Air Pollution. Paris. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/the-economic-consequences-of- outdoor-air-pollution_5jlzg2tj7mvf.pdf?itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fpublication%2F9789264257474- en&mimeType=pdf.


Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2017). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026. Special Focus: Southeast Asia. Paris. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2017-2026_ agr_outlook-2017-en;jsessionid=q8WsoLO97ujTtcppyvzESJNM.ip-10-240-5-90


Palter, J.B., Frölicher, T.L., Paynter, D. and John, J.G. (2018). Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming. Earth System Dynamics 9(2), 817-828. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018.


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Future Developments Without Targeted Policies


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