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ne of a sales manager’s most impor- tant functions has to be forecasting what’s ahead in the sales pipeline. And that’s so easy to do, right? As long as you replace that fancy desk set with a crystal ball! Until that works, however, here are


suggestions from sales and marketing experts for how to predict future sales and align sales strategies with the realities of markets served. With top management taking a hard and long look at both forecasts and strategies, according to Jim Brenn, director of marketing and sales for a manufacturer of high-speed connectors, “There are sizable challenges in aligning sales forecasts and strategies.” Others agree. At one software developer, where executive


vice president Rob Porter heads up the sales effort, he says whenever there are significant changes in either forecasts or strategies, the highest levels of management will want updates. Other sales executives add that top manage- ment is demanding to be brought snugly into the loop for reviews of forecasts, strategies, and the rest of what had been the province of sales managers. It makes good sense, because, this way, senior management puts its imprint on exactly where – and how much – resources get allocated to pump up the sales effort. One upshot, however, is that pressures are sky-


rocketing. “It isn’t business as usual. Sales reps and their managers are much more frazzled,” says Jon Lorenzo, a sales recruiter. One solution: It’s time for the sales team to take a fresh, unjaundiced look at aligning forecasts with strategies – and, in the process, rethink just how forecasts are concocted and strategies set.


A general sentiment throughout the selling


profession: The past year has fostered a lot of opportunism – triggered by an understandable need to make sales in order to stay in business. And, while no one faults this survival instinct, there’s increasing recognition that whatever sys- tematic approaches there had been to forecast- ing and strategizing have been tossed aside in many organizations. Now is the time to renew acquaintance with the more disciplined selling techniques that will guide a company to suc- cesses in bad times as well as good.


FORECAST THIS Just how bad are forecasts in many companies? Try the word “vapor,” says one CEO of a major


FORECASTS THAT HIT THE MARK On the other side of the coin, at least some companies insist that, in fact, their organizations generate valid forecasts that serve as the archi- tectural basis for rational corporate and sales strategies.


Case in point: At one sizable tech company, EVP Porter says a disciplined, multipronged ap- proach to gathering data consistently produces “forecasts that are within 5 percent of what we do.” Considering the company sells sophis- ticated B2B software in exceptionally volatile markets, that kind of accuracy is spot on. Porter tells how his sales force does it. “Every two weeks, all members of the sales force report


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sales training organization. “In many companies, forecasts are based on nothing more than indi- vidual observations; there’s nothing solid there.” “Forecasting is based too much on opinion, not enough on fact,” agrees Mike McGrath, a senior consultant with a sales solutions provider. “Forecasting is hard to do – and that’s proven by the many inaccuracies in forecasts.” “Salespeople submit forecasts that are based on hopes,” says Micah Johanssen, with a sales consultancy. He adds, “Forecasts are rooted in many customer maybes, but what’s a maybe? Usually it’s another word for no.” A core problem is that many businesses – in- cluding gargantuan multinationals – still concoct sales forecasts by polling salespeople, tallying up the possibilities, and calling the resulting number a forecast. But salespeople are, by na- ture, optimistic – and, until a prospect coldly and loudly says no, many salespeople carry exceed- ingly dim prospects on their logs as hot proba- bilities. “Some companies still are throwing darts at the wall and calling it a forecast,” says sales trainer Don Knudsen. Garson Vandeveldt, president of a technol- ogy briefing company, elaborates: “Start out with flawed information and you’ll end up with a flawed forecast. That’s the problem in most companies.” Here’s how bad matters are. “About half the sales forecasts out there aren’t worth much,” says Douglas Abbott, a sales management consultant. That means every other company is trying to plot its course through this economy’s turbulence by relying on inherently unreliable numbers. And, if forecasts are fundamentally flawed, guess what – strategies can’t be aligned with them.


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