Participatory modelling in Kenya 45


TABLE 2 Fuzzy cognitive map centrality scores (a measure of importance to overall dynamics, calculated by the number of connections to each variable) from six villages in the Kasigau Wildlife Corridor, Kenya, and the top 14 variables related to human–elephant conflicts that were common across all villages.


Centrality scores Variable


Human–elephant conflict Income levels


Feelings of security Deterrent fencing Crop yields


Officer response time


Relationship with wildlife officers Drought


Government resources


Proximity to ranches/boundary issues Infrastructure


Alternative livelihoods Resident mobility Elephant population


Buguta Bungule Itinyi Kisimenyi Makwasinyi Miasenyi 11.40


6.20 5.10 3.20 4.30 4.00 2.40 2.60 3.40 2.50 2.90 1.50 1.70 1.70


11.20 6.40 5.40 4.00 5.40 4.60 2.90 3.40 3.30 2.20 2.30 2.10 2.10 1.80


(P,0.001, 95%CI = 9.31, 23.03), environmental–policy


andmanagement (P,0.001, 95%CI =−16.86, −3.14), envi- ronmental–social (P,0.001, 95%CI =−26.03, −12.31), and social–policy and management (P,0.01, 95%CI =−16.03,


−2.31). Participating farmers shared similar perceptions of con-


flict, as 14 variables were consistent across all models including the key variable human–elephant conflict. Income level held the highest centrality score, followed by feelings of security (Table 2). The co-created, local model shared many of the same variables as the individual village models (Fig. 4). However, variables not prevalent in the village models were present in the co-created model that were known concerns from local conservation agencies and NGOs, and this model also had more reciprocal relationships. To address our second objective of determining if novel


system components were present, we identified variables representative of novel or underrepresented drivers and consequences of elephant conflicts. Fire setting occurs when farmers light fires to remove dead vegetation, often post-drought, on their land. However, these fires are not closely managed and can confuse or alarm elephants, caus- ing some elephants to retreat away from farms but others to go further into farmlands. The variable rearing culture of elephants originates from some farmers’ beliefs that conser- vation agencies that rehabilitate and release elephants into Tsavo are making them less wild, causing them to enter farming areas with little fear of humans. Protection from God is indicative of a strong religious and sociocultural be- lief in that the more one gives to God (in the form of devo- tion, time or money), the more protection is received from crop foraging elephants. Infrastructure referred to some rural roads that can become unnavigable, especially during


13.80 9.90 8.03 6.20 4.70 4.60 5.70 3.40 3.90 3.84 2.70 3.00 4.20 3.70 3.60 2.20 1.18 2.50 1.10 3.40 1.28 1.50 3.09 1.50 1.10 1.50 1.50 1.00


8.90 1.80 3.30 3.80 3.70 3.00 2.30 2.70 2.38 2.70 1.98 1.50 1.30 0.80


17.45 8.90 6.90 5.50 4.00 3.40 3.60 4.50 3.40 2.10 2.20 1.10 2.30 1.70


Total Rank


72.65 1 37.53 2 30.00 3 25.60 4 25.14 5 20.70 6 19.10 7 19.00 8 16.16 9 14.00 10 12.16 11 10.79 12 10.00 13 8.50 14


the rainy season, resulting in wildlife officials being unable to reach farmers complaining of elephant presence. The variable soil compaction is one of several conse-


quences that create economic challenges for farmers. Farmers stated that when elephants frequent the same areas of land, they compact the soil, resulting in the added cost of renting equipment to plough their fields. The im- moral behaviours variable reflected farmers’ beliefs that when income levels were low, drug and alcohol abuse, pre-marital relations, theft and crime all increased because people became idle or depressed. The parallels between these social behaviours and the negative impacts of human–elephant conflict have yet to be highlighted. However, other issues besides crop foraging can contribute to some of these behaviours, further illustrating the system’s complexity. Finally, child labour results when a family has limited funds because of crop damage/loss and must take their children out of school to earn income or stay home and support the family with farming tasks. For the third objective, using a biocultural approach to as-


sess if indicators formeasuring the success ofmitigation pro- grammes were present, we identified variables related to elephant conflicts that could be adapted as indicators. Early marriages and pregnancies and motherhood deliveries may re- sult when incomes decrease and girls or young women (typ- ically aged 15–22 years)marryearlier thanexpected as they feel a need to be provided for and secure. Thus,when harvest and incomes are good, marriage and pregnancy are delayed until desired.However, these variables can also be affected by other hardships. Separation of families was also noted as a negative consequence: when crop yields are low, male household membersmay have to leave home to find work elsewhere. The Standard Gauge Railway emerged in somemodels as a novel local variable. Construction of the railway, which


Oryx, 2025, 59(1), 40–49 © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605324000449


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