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WEEK2TELEVISIONGAMES 6Smarter Stats is a blog written by Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. For complete analysis of all of the week’s games go to
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SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
THE LEAGUE: The Post’s blog is your place for all things NFL during the season.
www.washingtonpost.com/theleague
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
1 p.m.,WUSA (Channel 9), Baltimore by 21/2
Cincinnati has won seven straight AFCNorth games. . . . Baltimore limited the Jets to 176 yards and just six first downs in opening win. . . . WRChad Ochocinco tied his career high with 12 catches atNewEngland.His 159 yards were his most since 2007. Ochocinco tied Carl Pickens for club record with his 63rd TD catch.. . .QB Carson Palmer is 8-3 against Baltimore, completing 61 percent with 14 TDs and nine interceptions.
SMARTER STATS: Last week, against the Jets, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (above) tied with EliManning of theNewYork Giants for the most average air yards (passing yardage without yards after the catch) at 9.2 yards per completion. Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer averaged just 6.62.
USERS PICKING THE RAVENS 74% GAMESNOTONTELEVISION
Buffaloat GreenBay 1 p.m., Packers by 13
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts
8:15 p.m. ,WRC (Channel 4), Colts by 51/2
FormerNo. 1 picks Peyton and EliManning meet for second time. Peyton won first meeting in 2006. . . . PeytonManning and ReggieWayne (above) have hooked up for 62 TDs since 2001 and need one to tie JohnUnitas and Raymond Berry for second-most in Colts history.Manning andMarvinHarrison set an NFL record with 112 TDs. . . . The Colts have finished among the league’s top seven in sacks allowed each of past eight seasons but gave up two atHouston.
SMARTER STATS: Will the Giants use two backs to take advantage of the Colts’ lighter, faster defense? In 2009, the Colts allowed just 3.6 yards per carry with multi-back backfields, 5.9 against single-back sets.
USERS PICKING THE COLTS 85% MATCHUP
TheBillsmanaged 166yards total offense in season-opening loss to Miami, lowest offensive output of any teaminWeek 1. Packers place kickerMasonCrosbywas theNFCspecial teams player of theweek after a56-yard field goal against the Eagles inWeek 1.
MiamiatMinnesota 1 p.m., Vikings by51/2
Dolphins’ top-ranked run defense heldBuffalo rookieC.J. Spiller to six yards on seven carries in lastweek’s opener and nowfaces Vikings star Adrian Peterson. Vikings quarterbackBrett Favre is two touchdown passes away from500for his career.
KansasCityatCleveland 1 p.m.,Browns by3
TheBrowns andChiefs combined for 75points last season in game featuring two touchdown kickoff returns of 100and 103yards by the Browns’ JoshuaCribbs and JeromeHarrison’s breakout286-yard rushing performance—third highest inNFL history.
ArizonaatAtlanta 1 p.m., Falcons by61/2
Cardinals safety AdrianWilson had two interceptions, blocked a field goal and came upwith a sack against theRams lastweek. Falcons’ Tony Gonzalezwill be honored formaking his 1,000th career catch lastweek. Hewas the seventh player inNFL history to reach themilestone, and first tight end.
TampaBayatCarolina 1 p.m., Panthers by31/2
This is amatchup of the two youngest teams in theNFL after recent roster overhauls. Panthers quarterbackMattMoore returned to practiceWednesday after sustaining a concussion against theGiants. Moore threwthree interceptions vs.Giants, all in the end zone, and lost a fumble.
PhiladelphiaatDetroit 1 p.m., Eagles by61/2
Philadelphia quarterbackMichael Vick passed for 175yards and ran for 103lastweek, his seventh game over 100yards passing and rushing. No other player has accomplished thatmore than three times.
Pittsburghat Tennessee 1 p.m. Titans by5
HinesWard posted his26th 100-yard receiving game lastweek, passing Hall of Famewide receiver John Stallworth for the teamrecord.Hewill be trying for his third straight gamewith at least 100yards receiving against Tennessee.
SeattleatDenver 4:05p.m.,Broncos by31/2
TheBroncos havewon 10straight home openers, the longest streak in NFL, andDenver’s37-12-1 record in home openers is bestmark in league. Since 1999,ChampBailey leads all cornerbackswith46 interceptions.
St. LouisatOakland 4:05p.m.,Raiders by31/2
Running backDarrenMcFadden had 150yards fromscrimmage last week for theRaiders, themost since he gained 173in his second career game atKansasCity in2008. FormerRedskin JasonCampbellmakes his home debut asOakland’s quarterback.
JacksonvilleatSanDiego 4:15p.m.,Chargers by 7
The Jaguarswere outscored61-3in trips to Seattle and San Francisco last year. The teamwill fly out Saturday afternoon instead of Friday. QuarterbackDavidGarrard is coming off the best passer rating (138.9) in nine-year career.
NewEnglandatNewYorkJets 4:15p.m., Patriots by3
RandyMoss needs one touchdown to become the fourth player—and secondwideout—inNFL historywith at least 150.Mosswas held to nine catches for58 yards and a touchdown by Jets cornerbackDarrelle Revis in two games last season.
AFC EAST
Miami
New England Buffalo N.Y. Jets
W L T
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
SOUTH Houston
Jacksonville Tennessee Indianapolis
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1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
NORTH
Baltimore Pittsburgh Cincinnati Cleveland
W L T
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
WEST
Kansas City Denver Oakland
San Diego W L T
1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
NFC EAST
Washington N.Y. Giants Dallas
Philadelphia
at Dallas Cowboys 1 p.m.,WTTG (Channel 5), Dallas by 7
Chicago’s defense forced eight three-and-outs. That was most on NFL’s opening weekend. . . . The Cowboys are 34-15-1 in home openers, but 0-1 in Cowboys Stadium after 33-31 loss to Giants in last year’s debut. . . . Cowboys rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant caught eight passes in the season opener. . . . Tony Romo’s 108 passing TDs since 2006 are the third-most in the NFL, trailing only last year’s Super Bowl quarterbacks, PeytonManning (125) and DrewBrees (123).
SMARTER STATS: Bears running backMatt Forte (above) was targeted seven times in the opener, and caught all seven passes. The average pass goes just 4.4 yards in the air; Forte led the league inWeek 1 with 17.43 yards after each catch.
USERS PICKING THE COWBOYS 89% SMARTERSTATS
TheBillsmightwant to add some protection to the right side of their line.ClayMatthews,who plays left outside linebacker or left defensive end forGreenBay, had three sacks in the season opener against the Eagles.
In2009,Miami tiedwithDetroit formost pass plays of40yards ormore allowed, and finished third-worstwith57 pass plays of20ormore yards allowed. Favrewas third in theNFL lastweek in average offensive pass length at 10.37.
In2009, theBrowns really stood out in kick return value because of super-returnmanCribbs. In their2010season-openingwin over San Diego, theChiefs had62yard passing, 135yards rushing and219yards on punt and kick returns.
TheCardinalswere a top run-stopping unit last year, butworst at giving up open field yards (yards gained by running backs at least 10yards past the line of scrimmage divided by total running back carries). This could be positive for Atlanta’sMichael Turner and JeriousNorwood if they can get to the second level.
Against theGiants lastweek,Carolina allowed 8.8 yard per attempt (fifthworst in the league) and five plays of20yards ormore.
Chicago Bears
N. Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN, Saints by 41/2
Saints quarterback DrewBrees completed 27 of 36 passes for 237 yards and a touchdown and connected with nine players in last week’s win over the Vikings. . . . The Saints held the Vikings to 253 total yards. San Francisco managed 263 in season-opening 31-6 loss at Seattle. . . . San Francisco will be looking for more from running back Frank Gore, who was held to 38 yards.
SMARTER STATS:NewOrleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams sent six or more pass rushers at quarterbacks more often than any other defensive coach in the NFL last season. Last year, the 49ers’ Alex Smith faced more than four pass rushers 141 times, and was slightly less efficient under those circumstances.
USERS PICKING THE SAINTS 94% USERPICKS
99% picked the Packers
91% picked the Vikings
70% picked theChiefs
84% picked the Falcons
80% picked the Panthers
The Lions didn’t impress inmany statistical categories last season, but they led the league in average rushing yards allowed around left end with just 1.59 per carry. Thatwas before they added linemenKyle VandenBosch andNdamukong Suh.
When the Titans go threewide, don’t necessarily expect a pass play. Running backChris Johnson averaged 8.6yards per carry out of those formations. Pittsburgh is fifth-worst in rushing yards allowed against that formation.
In2009,Denver lined up in the shotgun46.2percent of the time, seventhmost in theNFL, but had less success thanwhen its quarterbackswere under center.But only Jacksonvillewas less efficient against the shotgun than the Seahawks.
Oakland had troublewith Tennessee’sChris Johnson lastweek and now faces theRams’ Steven Jackson. Jackson put up some of the best numbers of his career last year despite a line thatwas being overhauled and a passing attack that did almost nothing to help him.
On offense theChargers aremore efficient in formationswith three or more receivers.But Jacksonville plays the runwell out of those formations.
The Jets earned just six first downs againstBaltimore lastweek and gave up asmany on penalties alone. Since2007, the Patriots have run more shotgun sets than any other team.
88% picked the Eagles
82% picked the Titans
56% picked the Broncos
57% picked theRaiders
87% picked theChargers
83% picked the Patriots
W L
T
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
SOUTH
New Orleans Tampa Bay Atlanta Carolina
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T
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
NORTH Chicago
Green Bay Detroit
Minnesota
W L
T
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
WEST
Arizona Seattle
San Francisco St. Louis
W L
T
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
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