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Can someone simply die of ‘old age’?
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Editorial President Obama thumbs his nose at the Senate.
Is Turkey becoming more democratic? That empty federal seat on theMetro board.
Opinion Jim DeMint.Washington can hear you now.
Dana Milbank. What Republican establishment? Ray Takeyh.Why Iran won’t respond to sanctions. George F. Will. Castro’s second thoughts on Cuba..
CORRECTIONS
l In some copies of today’s Magazine, which was printed in
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advance, the photograph in the key for the Sept. 12 Second Glance puzzle is missing the numbers that correspond to the answers. Here is the complete key: 1. Stolen pepperoni 2. Upside down 3. Flopped 4.Mirror image 5. Bigger center 6. Letter swap 7. Tree trimmed 8.Moving sidewalk 9.Minus an ear 10. Turned red
11. Different condiment 12. A big dog
For a color version of the photo, go to
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l Also in today’s Magazine, the Crossword clue for 7 Down
should read “Texas city, on bag tags,” not “Continental’s hub, on bag tags.” Continental’s Houston hub is abbreviated IAH, for George Bush Intercontinental Airport, but the intended answer is HOU, the abbreviation for Houston’s other major airport, WilliamP. Hobby Airport.
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SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
From Iowa, a hazy view of GOP presidential field desmoines
arahPalinisn’t theonly potentialRepublican presidential candidate
keeping theparty guessing.Rarely have therebeensomany questions surrounding somany candidates as there are rightnow about theGOP’spossibleWhite House fieldfor 2012. Republicans longhave followed
a familiarpattern:nominate the heir apparent, thenext inline, the front-runner. Inmany years, the identityof thatpersonwas obvious.Thatdidn’tpreclude a crowdedfieldor a competitive race,but theoutcome seemed, in the end,preordained.Not this time. Most voterswon’tbeginpaying
serious attentiontothe contest for theRepublicannominationuntil muchcloser totheprimaries.But inIowa,whereparty caucuseswill formally start the race inearly 2012, reading tea (and“teaparty”) leaves is apreoccupationforparty activists.What they see is a patternofuncertainty. “As I talktomy fellow
Republicans, Idon’t sense there’s any coalescence aroundanybody,” saidDaveRoederer,whooversaw campaignoperations inIowa for GeorgeW.BushandJohnMcCain. “Inmyopinion, it’s await-and-see as towho’s aroundandwhogets in andwhodoesn’t. I’venever seenit like this.” TheRepublicannomination
contesthas startedslowly.At this time four years ago, Iowahadbeen overrunformonthswith presidential candidates, Democrats andRepublicans.They were campaigning for candidates, meeting activists, signingup operatives andcompeting for endorsements.This year, the activityhasbeenkept toa minimum. Partly that’sbecause
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Republicans areheavily focused onmaximizing theirpossible gains intheNovembermidterm elections.Partly it’sbecause prospective candidates are watching theirpotential rivals for clues as towhowill runand,more important,how.Partly it’sbecause theparty is inthemiddleof an internalbattle. The antiestablishment fervor
inside theparty,whichhasplayed out repeatedly inSenateprimaries this year,has thepotential to scramble thebattle for theGOP nominationin2012.Every candidate,particularly anyone whois at all identifiedaspartof the establishment, is grappling withhowtoaccommodate the newmoodinside theparty. Palinhasbest capturedthat
moodwithher endorsementsof teaparty-backedcandidates and her challenges totheparty establishment.Her starpower is obvious.Her appearancehere Fridaynightdrewthe largest crowdinthehistoryof the Iowa GOP’sRonaldReaganDinner fundraiser. ButwillPalinrunforpresident?
Andif shedoes, canshe gothe distance?Opinionsonboth questionsdiffer greatlywithinthe party. Inthe audienceFridaynight weremany Iowanswhowanther torunandsay theywill support her if shedoes andotherswho foundher speechtoodefensive andfilledwithreferences that flewover theheadsof Iowans. Veteransofpast campaigns also
It’s in the Details
questionwhether someonewho communicatesmostly through FacebookandTwitter,whohas developedfewreal relationships withparty leaders inthe states andwhooperates inan unorthodox fashion, canput
THE SUNDAY TAKE Dan Balz
together thekindofdisciplined organizationgenerally requiredto winthenomination. “Caucusgoers areusedtobeing
communicatedwithone-on-one andingroups,” saidSteve Scheffler,presidentof the Iowa ChristianAlliance andIowaGOP national committeeman. “She’ll have toemploy those tactics inthe verynear future if shewants to runforpresident.” The competitionfor religious
andsocial conservatives inIowa couldbe fierce.Palinwouldappeal tomanyof them.FormerArkansas governorMikeHuckabee,who wonthe caucuses four years ago, retains a church-basednetwork that couldbe reactivatedifhe runs.FormerPennsylvania senatorRickSantorumhas visited the state.One Iowa strategist calledhim“as authentic a culture warrior as there is inthebunch.” Nobodymayhave aharder
decisionaboutnavigating thenew contoursof theparty in2012 than formerMassachusetts governor MittRomney.His attributes are obvious: goodlooks, intelligence, a successful recordinbusiness, lessons learnedfromhis unsuccessful 2008bid.But soare his liabilities, thebiggestone, say otherRepublicans, is the trouble hehadfour years agoprojecting anauthenticpersona.He is anythingbut an antiestablishment candidate.The questioniswhetherhe canunify the rambunctiousparty. Romneyhas aparticular
probleminIowa,wherehe competedhardfour years agoonly tolose toHuckabee. InIowa, religious andsocial conservatives (rather thanteaparty activists) dominate the caucuses.Many remainskepticalofRomney. Ifhebecomes a candidate,one
of the firstquestionshe’ll face is what todoabout Iowa. “Mitt can’t comehere andspend$10million andfinishsecond,” saidanIowa GOPactivist. Questions surroundtwo
current governors:Mississippi’s HaleyBarbour andIndiana’s MitchDaniels.The twoserved together intheReaganWhite House.Botharehighly respected for theirknowledgeofpolitics and their records inoffice. Bothare conservativeonsocial
issuesbutneitherwants theGOP tomake those issues front and center.Barbour camehere last year andgavehis standard“big tent” speech.Republicanshere are still talking about it, andnot all favorably.Barbourhasbeenmore attentive tothenuts-and-boltsof courting Iowa activists,whichhas beeninterpretedhere as a signof his genuine interest inrunning. Thequestionaskedhere is whether the 2012 race can accommodatebothof them. MinnesotaGov.TimPawlenty is
running anold-fashionedIowa campaign.Hehasbeenthemost diligentof theprospective candidates about starting early, visitingoftenandbeginning to buildanorganization.His team includespeoplewithlong experience inIowa, andhehas signedupsomeof the state’smost talentedpeople.Buthis strategy requires time,patience andgood luck. FormerHouse speakerNewt
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Gingrichhas toyedwithrunning inother yearsbuthas always pulledback.This time, Iowa Republicans sayhehasbeen particularly aggressive in signalinghis interest, andhe is attractingpositive reviews from differentpartsof theparty. Noonehasbeenmore
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provocative inhis rhetoric about PresidentObama thanGingrich. Themost recent examplewashis controversial claimthatObama exhibits a “Kenyan, anti-colonial” mind-set.Gingrichwatchers see this asnoaccident,but rather an effort topreventPalinor anyone else frombecoming the vessel for someof the strongest anti-Obama, antiestablishment sentiment withintheparty. One clear signthatGingrichis
thinking seriously about running andsees Iowa as apotential springboardis the fact thathis political actioncommitteehas given$33,000tostate legislative candidates this year. Inane-mail, Gingrichsaidheplans toship $67,000more soon.That $100,000is ahefty figure and dwarfswhat anyone else isdoing. ManyotherRepublicansmay
be looking at the race,orhoping to influence it fromtheoutside. Ina fewmonths, intentionswill becomemore apparent.Lookfor a wildride ahead.
balzd@washpost.com
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