The EU-28 has given an unconditional pledge of at least a 20 per cent reduction by 2020, compared to 1990 levels, further reducing to 30 per cent below, but conditional on other parties’ contributions, thereby preserving room for larger reductions and reciprocity. By 2030, the EU-28 has an unconditional 40 per cent reduction target which will be achieved by INDCs.


The Russian Federation proposal suggests that a stagnation of emissions until 2030 can be achieved. This ‘target’ is unlikely to require additional efforts beyond the implementation of current policies. Similarly, in Europe emissions targets are driven by current policy, but a substantial emission gap is projected that is not consistent with a pathway delivering <2ºC stabilization. This assessment is supported by the findings of Gignac and Matthews (2015) in an analysis of the allocation of carbon budgets to the EU-28 and the Russian Federation under different contraction and convergence assumptions.


Explanation: expected emissions under current national climate policies (green area) vs a ‘business-as-usual scenario’ (dashed line). Blue dots are emissions pledges for 2020 and red dots the INDCs (conditional and unconditional). The black area (solid) is the historic emissions by region since 1990. The grey area (shaded) is global emissions that are consistent with the 2ºC pathway (UNEP 2014c). Emission outcomes (no-policies scenario) are indicated by the red bars. Grey dots are regional emission targets required to achieve the 2ºC pathway under different convergence-based allocation rules.


However, even in countries that pursue the most ambitious climate change mitigation policies, projected greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades are not yet compatible with the target under the Paris Agreement of not more than 1.5ºC warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (EEA 2015c), for example, notes, “the projected reductions of EU greenhouse gas emissions as result of implemented policies are insufficient to bring the EU on a pathway towards the 2050 decarbonization target”. The EU is on track to ‘over-deliver’ on its international and domestic 2020 targets, but is not on track towards its 2030 and 2050 targets”. Other advanced industrialized countries


in the region, such as Norway and Switzerland, are in a similar position. For example, Switzerland plans to reduce its emissions by 50 per cent by 2030, relative to 1990 levels, with an interim target of 35 per cent for 2025.


36:


Mineralisation of CO2 in solid waste to produce products that can be used in construction


The management of CO2 emissions by carbon capture and


utilisation (CCU) is a potentially important future part of a balanced strategy for reducing greenhouse gases emissions. Carbon dioxide can be used as a feedstock for, for example, fuel, plastics and urea manufacture. For CCU processes to compete with traditional materials an adequate supply of hydrogen will be vital. As the hydrogen economy develops, CCU-related products and processes will become more cost effective and numerous and utilize significant quantities of carbon.


One currently available CCU process involves the mineralisation of CO2


in solid waste to produce products that can be used in construction. The technology is a


managed version of ‘natural carbonation’ whereby CO2 gas is converted to calcium carbonate (limestone). The carbonate-reaction is managed carefully and can be used to manufacture a range of monolithic materials, including a substitute for aggregates made from virgin stone. Developed at the University of Greenwich the process is being applied in the UK in a zero emissions plant near Bristol. Carbonated manufactured aggregates are being made from air pollution control residues, but different solid wastes can be used.


The aggregates, which have a structure similar to natural oolitic limestone (Figure-L2 16) meet European ‘end of waste’ regulations and materials performance standards, and make a demonstrable contribution to the developing European circular economy.


Currently two UK aggregate plants are operating, but by 2019 production capacity will be 0.5 Mtpa, in which 10 ktpa of waste CO2


will be permanently captured.


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