integrated multi-sectoral approach is required. Therefore, adaptation to climate change should not be discussed in isolation and the focus of any policy intervention should be on socio-economic drivers, such as land use and production patterns. Technical measures that mainly aim at maintaining the current state or are trying to reduce the impacts are not sufficient to save water and to reduce vulnerability to water scarcity in the future (Flörke et al. 2012c).


Under the assumptions of an alternative projection to meet the relevant goals, reductions in water withdrawals can be reached. Model simulations show that water abstractions may decrease in the thermal electricity production sector, which is mainly driven by the assumption of changing technologies, i.e. cooling systems, and a reduction in thermal electricity production (Flörke et al. 2012b). Reductions in the manufacturing sector are influenced by a slow economic development leading to a lower manufacturing output (Flörke et al. 2012c). Water withdrawals are expected to decrease for irrigation purposes due to a combination of changes in the extent of irrigated areas and improving irrigation efficiencies (Schaldach et al. 2012). In the domestic sector, the promotion of improved technologies as well as lifestyle changes helps to reduce water withdrawals.


Links with other environmental priorities and emerging issues The future status of water in the region is likely to become highly critical in achieving Goal 6 to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all” as well as for a number of other goals including Goal 2 (food security, improved nutrition and sustainable agriculture), Goal 3 (reducing mortality rates attributed to unsafe water); Goal 7 (shifting to sustainable energy systems), Goal 12 (adhering to the principles of sustainable consumption and production, Goal 13 (implementation of ambitious climate change policies) and Goal 15 (ensuring the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of inland freshwater ecosystems). Similarly, achievement of the various river basin agreements, such as for the Danube, and restoration of inland waters such as the Aral Sea are likely to require a multi-sectoral approach.


The sustainable management of inland waters provides co-


benefits for human well-being and ecosystem health Credit: Shutterstock/Banet


There are two major emerging issues that could also affect the future sustainability of water in the region. The first is that decreased groundwater levels, due to overuse and reduced recharge will lead to more severe and more frequent droughts, soil loss and the release of particulate matter, which can carry pesticides metabolites and trace elements. The second is the unregulated disposal of waste and chemicals leading to the spread of chemicals that are persistent, bio- accumulative and toxic, as well as pharmaceuticals, such as endocrine disrupters, entering into the groundwater supplies and the food chains of freshwater organisms.


4.2.3 Biodiversity and ecosystems


The pan-European region’s ecosystems are already undergoing biodiversity decline (Section 2.4), including a decrease in IUCN Red List species (Brooks et al. 2016). Avoiding further degradation as suggested by available outlooks, will depend on investment in conservation and regeneration, establishment of sustainable use and management plans as well as greater emphasis on transdisciplinary research and knowledge developments. The long time lags between reduced pressures and the subsequent restoration of ecosystem functions and services have implications for future availability and security, especially food.


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Chapter 4: Outlooks and Emerging Issues


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