Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the transformative changes needed to meet them. As the pan-European region’s possibilities are also embedded in a dynamically changing and increasingly challenging regional and global context, global megatrends are also taken into account: demographic change, increasing urbanization, global competition for resources, climate change, and the implications of an increasingly multipolar world.


Much of the pan-European region is considered well-off by comparison to other regions of the world, even though inequalities in income, opportunity and health exist across the region. This comparatively high standard of living and health in the region, is however, fragile, as demonstrated by the 2008–2009 financial crisis (Eurofund 2013), and not immune to significant political uncertainties vis-à-vis the recent migration crisis and conflicts, or to the effects of environmental stress and vulnerability on people and ecosystems. New challenges may also emerge, including the effects of increased extreme weather events which can contribute to the loss of livelihoods particularly in marginal lands, and to people abandoning traditional areas (Ebi and Bowen 2015). In a BAU world, without the ability to interpret subtle signals and other warnings (EEA 2013, 2001) and develop competencies to differentiate between the root causes and symptoms of problems, and without sufficient capacity to think and act within a common value frame and a longer-term perspective, the pan-European region could become increasingly vulnerable.


The level of uncertainty regarding the future impacts of climate change on the standard of living and health in the region, is also an increasingly important factor in decision- making (IPCC 2014). The shrinking of the Aral Sea and its segmentation into two separate reservoirs following a failure in lake management provides a stark example. The collective failure in relation to lake management led not only to declining water levels and loss of biodiversity, but also to the loss of thousands of fishing related jobs and the collapse of former shore towns, as well as significant health problems due to Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) generated from the dry lake


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bed (Micklin and Aladin 2008; Whish-Wilson 2002). The health impacts however helped to catalyse national and international political action on health monitoring. The WHO now has an Operational Framework for building Climate Resilient Health Systems that includes policies and programmes on climate-informed health, integrated risk monitoring and early warning, emergency preparedness, and vulnerability assessments to support member countries in the development of their National Adaptation Plans under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (WHO 2015). As for the Aral Sea itself, the Northern Aral has recovered as a result of irrigation efficiency improvements and preventing outflow to the Large Aral Sea, but revitalization of the entire Aral Sea is not expected (Sehring and Diebold 2012).


Cow grazing in a dry harbour on the Aral Sea Credit: Shutterstock/Tracing Tea


In response to recent political calls for action on SDS, UNEP together with WMO and UNCCD have produced a rapid global assessment on SDS. The assessment synthesizes the latest knowledge on the science and policy of SDS and applies this knowledge to identify elements of a comprehensive framework for preventing and managing SDS at the local, regional and global levels (UNEP 2016).


As stated in Section 1.2, environmental health and human well-being are recognized as inherently integrated and interdependent within the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable


GEO-6 Assessment for the pan-European Region


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