conference report euroLED
$1 billion today to $6 billion in 2016.
Fox also discussed the massive ramp in MOCVD reactor shipments to China, which have been spurred by government subsidies of up to $1.8 million per tool. In 2009, global MOCVD tool shipments stood at 227, and IMS expects this to shoot up to 1089 this year. This tremendous growth in worldwide production capacity is expected to lead to oversupply of LED chips and downward pricing pressures on these products, issues that were detailed at length in an interview with Fox’s colleague, Ross Young, in the previous issue of Compound Semiconductor (see “China’s LED chipmaking boom fuels overcapacity” June p.38).
50,000 hours is more than double that of fluorescent and high-intensity discharge lamps, and it has good green credentials, thanks to the absence of mercury, lead and glass. These attributes translate into significant cash savings - a city with a million people that switches from high- pressure sodium streetlights to LED- based equivalents could save $6 million over the lifetime of the solid-state lamp.
The greater emphasis that the LED industry now places on general illumination was also a central messages in the opening talk, which was given by Jamie Fox, Research Manager for LEDs at the UK-based firm IMS Research. “In 2011, general lighting has, for the first time, become the top focus for component manufacturers,” said Fox.
According to him, the reason for this shift in focus is that the LED market for TV backlighting will saturate around 2013, and chipmakers are now looking at how they can grow their sales through the latter part of this decade and beyond. TV backlighting accounted for about half of the LED revenue ramp from $6.1 billion in 2009 to $10.2 billion in 2010, and will significantly contribute to the more modest global revenue growth in 2011. However, by 2016, LEDs for general illumination will be a major part of the LED business, due to a growth in revenue from around
26
www.compoundsemiconductor.net July 2011
A European perspective Reflecting the focus of the conference, Fox offered an overview of the European LED market. Here Philips and Zumtobel lead luminaire and fixtures sales, and Philips, Osram, and General Electric dominate shipments of LED lamps (replacements for incandescents and compact fluorescents). Of the 105-110 million LED lamps shipped in 2010, 27 million went to Western Europe. Sales to this region are tipped to grow at 50 to 100 percent per year, according to Fox who is preparing a more accurate forecast. He believes that high levels of LED lamp penetration will only occur when prices plummet to $10 or less.
Following Fox on the podium was Mark van den Berg, Philips Lumileds’ Director of Marketing for Europe, the Middle-East and Africa. He discussed the quality of
LED light, which he believes has overtaken efficacy as the principle focus for chip improvement; and he spoke about what is needed to drive market adoption. In his opinion, the greatest threat that Lumileds faces to expanding its sales does not come from rival chipmakers, such as Cree, Osram and Samsung, but from makers of compact fluorescents.
van den Berg pointed out that one of the biggest obstacles to greater adoption of LED lighting is the complexity associated with defining the performance of this light source. In his opinion, it is only possible to make a good decision on what product to use after scrutinizing datasheets and understanding the application.
According to van den Berg, an LED light source must excel in five separate areas if it is to give a high quality of white light. For starters, it must have a colour- rendering index (CRI) exceeding 80, and ideally 90, with particular attention paid to the rendering of shades of red. The solid-state lighting source must also be evaluated at its running temperature, and it must deliver colour consistency between the LED and the luminaire. In addition, the LED sources must deliver great colour consistency within the beam, and over the lifetime of the device.
To drive far higher market adoption, van den Berg claimed that LEDs must deliver a higher quality of light at a far lower price. In addition, he said that standards applied to this form of light
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