scotland |
BUMPER YEAR FOR ASG COMMERCIAL A
s the Highlands leading commercial estate agent to the hospitality sector,
ASG Commercial has had a bumper year in 2017 with all indicators showing a continued positivity going forward. Within the market place there is a negativity mainly being expressed by the press and ‘negative opposition politics’ focussing on talking-down the economy. The market is not without challenges but generally the property market in 2017, within the Highlands, has benefitted from an upbeat UK economy (despite Brexit) showing optimistic trading results due to: 1. A general increase in buyer conviction with Improved confidence in the economy.
2. An enduring upturn in trading figures for the majority of well-run businesses.
3. A continuing positive attitude from main stream financial institutions to fund new business.
4. A generally more optimistic approach by some surveyors to valuations.
Activity Statistics: ASG Commercials’ trading statistics indicate positive outcomes across the spectrum of data collected in 2017. During the period 2014 – 2017 there has been a consistent increase in enquiry activity showing a 3-fold improvement over the period. Detailed analysis shows over 4 years the peak period for enquiries is the third quarter (Jul / Aug / Sep). Anecdotal perceptions are the New Year and Spring is the time when people look to buy. In 2017 we recorded 10% more enquires in summer period than the spring quarter with the next best performing quarter being Oct / Nov / Dec. Records indicate similar increases in viewings and closely mirroring the activity patterns with people generally viewing in the summer months with the later months also popular. Sales data over the period 2014 – 2017 shows a rise from 24 sales in 2014 to 66 sales in 2017. Following on from previous trends, in 2017
Aultbea Hotel - Sold in Jan 2018 from an Offers Over price of £675,000
we record most businesses concluding in the last third of the year (Sep to Dec - 43.94%). Sector: The market shows a strong appetite for B&Bs and small hotels. In the case of hotels, we note some new sales have been to purchasers lacking previous experience with banks supporting acquisitions. Self- catering units remain popular with high demand for businesses with 4 or more letting units. Price: The market has also benefitted from a high level of cash buyers with sales vis-à- vis schedule prices are becoming closer, indicating an improvement in market conditions. It would also appear the market is starting to come back into equilibrium regarding new instructions versus sales etc. The Future: There are undoubted pitfalls in drawing meaningful conclusions from statistical data. However, given the torturous economic period within the UK since 2008, it could be suggested year-on- year comparisons are done against a changing backdrop and therefore have little validity. The question is, ‘do trading figures really make sense and have any
credibility in predicting future trends?’ Regardless of the arguments, when assessing business values and making business decisions, they are all we have. Despite Brexit, the UK economy is generally stable making it impossible to predict how Brexit will impact upon markets and how major institutions will respond. The pessimists suggest we are in a bubble which is about to burst and many ‘respected economists’ recommend we get prepared for the ‘worst case scenario’ – the dreaded ‘Cliff Edge’. However, given the past warnings in such matters, it makes it difficult to trust the current commentary. Fear of the unknown is a big driver in business with some professionals continuing to hide behind a shield of negativity. Others mindful of recent difficult times, are taking a more proactive stance and see opportunities opening up. Where the economy remains steadfast, possibly even growing, the future will be bright. On the other hand, should the doomsayers finally get their predictions right, we might find ourselves in for a rough ride. In the future, as in the past, fortune may well favour the brave. At ASG Commercial Ltd, we believe there are undoubted challenges ahead; some yet to manifest themselves. In the immediate future there appears to be sound grounds to remain optimistic and longer-term we remain hopeful. Being positive, realistic and responsive continues to be our mantra, dealing with new threats and challenges as they present themselves.
www.asgcommercial.co.uk info@asgcommercial.co.uk 01463 714757
Ravenscraig Guest House - Sold in Jan 2018 from an Offers Over price of £775,000 COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MONTHLY 2018 95
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