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EU BYTES


Presidencies, and both of them ran successfully for a second term. Indeed, approval ratings are not as


important as people would like to think. Trump’s approval ratings at the time of his election were much less favourable than after the election, and notably less favourable than those of Clinton.


Another way of looking at numbers


Secondly, we don’t think that Trump will be impeached, but rather the opposite, that it might end up helping him. At the moment it is clear according to the polls we have come across that more people support the impeachment process than oppose it, and numbers do not constitute an absolute majority. Furthermore, there has not been a lot of


divergence in public opinion since Nancy Pelosi announced the impeachment inquiry. What is certain is that Trump can live with such a stalemate especially well. From a political affiliation approach, the Democrats camp predominantly, unsurprisingly want his impeachment and the opposite obviously applies to the Republicans. But what about the political independents? They need to be won over, and from what we have seen, they are more favourable towards Trump’s cause. If anything, Republicans are more united on impeachment than the Democrats are. A sizable portion of the Democrats – among them Presidential Candidate Tulsi Gabbard – don’t want impeachment. Instead, they prefer to defeat Trump at the ballot box. In this context it’s also notable that there were a few Democrat votes that didn’t support Trump’s impeachment in the House, but there were no dissenting Republican votes.


Impeachment and election-day


We think it’s fair to conclude that the impeachment isn’t having the desired effect. What we are seeing is very different from Nixon’s Watergate scandal, for example, which ended up destroying Nixon’s Watergate scandal his support among Republicans, leading to his


resignation. Indeed, if public opinion isn’t swayed by impeachment, that must be good for Trump’s odds in the 2020 election. Betting markets seem to think the same way. Trump’s impeachment always was very likely


to fail because of the overwhelming Republican majority in the Senate. Was the goal to damage Trump going into the 2020 election year? Probably. We see it backfiring as the impeachment process has failed to impress the American public, especially where it matters most: among the Independents. Meanwhile the impeachment proceedings


have fired up Trump’s base, which is visible in the record number of small donations. Finally, we think it’s likely that the whole impeachment scenario doesn’t leave a good impression with undecided voters. Three years into Trump’s Presidency, Democrats might appear to not have accepted their 2016 loss and some might say that they are trying to overturn it by any means necessary. We predict this isn’t going to play well with voters that are still on the fence come election day.


Why care about predictions in politics?


Well, what is the point of all this apart from advertisement I hear you ask? We are testing our theory that statistics combined with tacit knowledge gives the most accurate results, rather than only big data and statistical analysis. A last attempt to convince the world that the human aspect is necessary in the face of computers and robots taking over? Maybe. Predictions in politics have always been


important for society, decision-makers, and gambling. Yet, even now, not many prediction- makers get it right. Trump won and Brexit was voted on. Politics are mostly about human interaction and the context within which they are done. And, yes, we are looking at much more than politics in the US. Indeed, we are picking and choosing a variety of political “happenings” such as other national and regional elections and legislative procedures. Maybe, you have some suggestions?


Greetings from Brussels.


34 FEBRUARY 2020


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