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EU Bytes


Former Executive Director of the European Casino Association and current Managing Director of Time & Place Consulting, Glenn Cezanne provides the latest info on what’s trending and what’s coming down the pipeline in Brussels and around the EU.


I Glenn Cezanne 32 FEBRUARY 2020


am presuming that you are either preparing for the delightful madness of London’s ICE, in the middle of it and discovering these (spectacular) pages you just picked up off the neighbouring table in the VIP lounge, or post-adrenaline slouching in a chair at home feeling nostalgic about the great days you just spent in London. Or, you couldn’t make it and are looking for something to make you feel closer to ICE. In this case, sorry for bringing you to Brussels and Washington where the most exciting blinking lights are usually those of motorcades. You could place bets on what politician is hidden behind tainted windows.


Why Trump will be re-elcted


Politics… Well, we took a daring bet on ourselves and went a bit mad launching our recent project; a project about “Predictability in Politics” (PiP). What


a way to put your reputation on the line. And yes, I know we are usually writing about the EU, but this time round I thought it might be interesting to share our ongoing case study, the model of which we apply to European political and public affairs. Let us tell you about our current PiP bet: Trump will not be impeached and will certainly be re- elected. Most recently, Joachim Marnitz (T&P’s AI and betting guru) and I have been looking at what statistics don’t tell us. And, I really trust Joachim on this…he predicted Trump to win in 2016.


Are approval ratings and polls useful?


As a first point: Trump’s approval rates are low but that does not mean anything. If you put it into historical perspective, Trump’s approval rates are almost exactly where Ronald Reagan’s and Barack Obama’s were at the same time into their respective


kropic/Adobe Stock


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