INDUSTRY DATA
they stand, and looked at future demand for different products,” adds Baker. “Because we only work in cycling, it puts us in a unique position that we know how to go and find cyclists to try and get them involved. And then we work with enough different companies to make it work. “Since the pandemic, brands are much more conscious now about making sure that they do have a better understanding of what riders really want and what they’re planning to do.” Overall, Shift and the team are excited by what has been achieved.
“But there’s so much more that we want
to get done,” continues Baker. “And that’s for the next few years.”
Just in time
A challenge for all data projects – irrespective of industry – is getting timely data.
Using information that is months or years out of date is no good. Especially if brands are using it to inform business decisions. “This year, we have managed to get hold of more timely financial performance data, whether that’s from individual companies or via the B2B press which has gotten better and sharper at reporting earnings,” explains Baker. “I also think that the Bicycle Association (BA) particularly is leading the way globally. We look at lots of markets, but they have the best retail data and having that sooner has helped. That’s made the retail data a lot more accessible and more real time.” Despite offering data insights, Baker and Shift Active Media aren’t looking to compete with what’s already out there. Far from it.
“If we have different data sets, they tell a whole story between them,” he says.
“The time spent finding good retail data has come down because there’s more good data out there – which is a positive because that means we spend more time diving into consumer data and finding out what’s actually going on on the sales side.”
Political uncertainty and its impact The purpose of catching up with Baker is not to reheat all of the information shared in the report. However, the consumer context is key to understanding spending habits and attitudes,
“2024 is the biggest election year in history,” states a quote from The Economist.
“The globe as a whole has an amazing number of national elections happening,” continues Baker.
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Political uncertainty has a direct impact on consumer confidence
“Over half the world’s population are PHOTO BY SIMON DAWSON
going to vote this year.” Focusing on the UK, Baker sees two sides: general consumer confidence and cycling consumer confidence. “Whatever your view about the incumbents, they are unpopular, according to the polls,” he explains. “There’s obviously been a lot of infighting and lots of challenges which I think that lack of popularity is tied to. It is a break on consumer confidence because people aren’t confident that we know – as a
country – where we’re going.”
If there is a change of Government, Baker expects to see a bump in consumer confidence.
“There’s new opportunities and a hope that things are going to change for the better,” he says.
“There will be ongoing challenges because we do have the
systemic ones around how we navigate post-Brexit and the impact that has on the reality of our economy.” The other side is cycling consumer confidence and what the industry has to look forward to.
“Looking at the signals, the different policy guidelines and what the parties are saying, we could be moving from an antagonistic option to a fairly neutral option,” says Baker. “The Conservatives have been very much positioned in the last 12 months as the party for motorists, which I’ve never seen as being a sensible thing to position itself – even if I wasn’t a cyclist. “More people using bikes, Active Travel, scooters and walking for short journeys means fewer traffic jams for people in cars. More options for how you get around the city and being able to support people to have a choice about how they travel is actually better for motorists. “To me it is a bit of a self-defeating position to take but it means it’s quite antagonistic and created an ‘us against them’ mentality.”
Looking at Labour’s most recent statements, Baker doesn’t expect the party to be a big advocate for cycling, if they do come into power at the next General Election. “They are likely to largely devolve it as an issue, challenge or opportunity for local councils,” he explains. “Overall we will see a small bump in consumer confidence and also less of a headwind for supporting cycling and e-bike growth.
“I’m hopeful for more once another Government gets
into power and starts looking at the opportunities around e-bikes and green transport, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet on anything.”
May 2024 | 31
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