MARKETING AND MANAGEMENT COMMUNICATION


Smoke and Mirrors: Impact of E-cigarette Taxes on Underage


Social Media Posting Marketing Science, 43, 3, May-June 2024 LINK TO PAPER


VRINDA KADIYALI


NICHOLAS H. NOYES PROFESSOR OF MANAGEMENT


Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management


Cornell SC Johnson College of Business Cornell University


Co-authors • Vrinda Kadiyali Nicholas H. Noyes Professor of Management, Samuel Curtis


Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell SC Johnson College of Business, Cornell University


• Piyush Anand, Jones Graduate School of Business, Rice University, Texas


Summary E-cigarette use, or vaping, is a public health concern, with particular worries


about underage use. Te U.S. government is expected to introduce federal taxation on vaping, however the potential deterrent effect of such a tax on underage users is understudied because of the absence of underage use data. To cut through this data fog, the authors use Instagram images from 2016 to 2018 to estimate whether a tax change in California affected vaping-related posting by underage users.


Tis posting behavior is a potential proxy for consumption behavior. Te au- thers use image analysis (residual neural networks) and latent factor models for causal inference of tax effects, and compared with counterfactuals, they find a relative decline (in effect a slower increase in postings) in the incidence of underage users in vaping-related images in California for about six months, with no effects after. Tere is gender and race heterogeneity in these effects. Te authors’ proposed approach of using near real-time social media images can be helpful to regulators and managers seeking to protect young people.


CONTENTS TO MAIN


| RESEARCH WITH IMPACT: CORNELL SC JOHNSON COLLEGE OF BUSINESS • 2024 EDITION


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