SPECIAL:
THE FUTURE EDITION W
as the humble
mushroom the ingredient of 2022? As the year concludes, is the versatile fungus the product that diners and foodservice consumers will take away as the one that left its mark? In February that was the prediction by
none other than the New York Times. In the UK, commercial kitchen business Foodstars agreed. Mushrooms, the two argued, go beyond being easy to use ingredients that fi t in well to the vegan, vegetarian and fl exitarian diets that are so popular and widespread; and are now being developed into a much broader product range. Most recently mushroom milk has been added to the available options for dairy-free milk. Then again, if you had asked National
Geographic, this was going to be the year that tinned fi sh took off . Every year, from August onwards, predictions
for the following year start to emerge in the foodservice and hospitality sector, as experts, analysts and market observers take a punt at what is likely to materialize as solid trends the next year and beyond. From ingredients and fl avors to technologies and equipment, there’s an opinion on just about everything. For next year those in the know are variably predicting a growing trend around what has been labelled ‘sweet plus’ – sweet ingredients combined with other fl avors such as chilli or salt. So-called ‘complex heat’ is also on the list of watchwords for 2023, described as products where heat goes beyond the spicy and incorporates other fl avor notes. Others have predicted that fermentation, already a feature on trend lists, will remain an expected growth area and how about nostalgic fl avors?
Depending on who you ask, the future can look
diff erent. It can at times appear a bit random and manufactured even. This peek into the future is one most have come to expect, and indeed, welcome. But, with a number of channels and platforms off ering their take on the likely direction of travel, some may ask how important it is to know what the future is likely to bring and whether much of this future gazing is actually reliable.
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WHAT’S COMING DOWN THE TRACK
First things fi rst. What is a trend? It depends on who you ask. “It is important to bear in mind that the word trend means something diff erent to each person,” says trendologist Mike Kostyo, an associate director at Datassential, the food industry market research and trends company. “For us, a trend is simply the measurable growth, or decline, of a food, fl avor, or ingredient on menus and in retail. As long as people communicate what they like and dislike to each other, both consumers and industry professionals, there will be trends.” At Datassential, says Kostyo, the team works through four stages for a trend cycle: inception, adoption, proliferation, and ubiquity. Previously, for an ingredient or fl avor to move through the cycle could take as much as 12 years, but this is reduced to six to eight years now. “Not every trend will move through the entire cycle, some will be stuck in the fi rst stage for a long time,” says Kostyo. “They may be too expensive, hard to fi nd or simply too ‘out there’.”
Useful tools
There is a science of sorts to this. To produce its regular menu tracker, Datassential employs a wide range of methods to keep track of trends, including a machine learning engine called Haiku, which Kostyo says can make predictions four years out. The team also tracks consumer sentiments to check in for anything that may be catching on with consumers. Combined with these is the team’s general knowledge of the food landscape. Why does it matter? What diff erence does this information make on a practical level? For operators and decision-makers in the foodservice sector, future trend
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