LABOR SHORTAGE
T
he International Labour Organization (ILO) has downgraded its forecast for labor market recovery in 2022, projecting a deficit in hours worked globally equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. The previous full-year estimate in May 2021 projected a deficit of 26 million full-time equivalent jobs. This latest projection is 1.8% below the number of global hours worked pre-pandemic, according to a report released by the ILO this year entitled World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2022, prepared by the Macro- economic Policies and Jobs Unit of the ILO Research Department. Global unemployment is expected to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023, but the ILO’s report cautions that the overall impact on employment is greater than represented because many people have left the labor force entirely at a rate of 1.2 percentage points below the rate in 2019. At the same time, the global foodservice market is projected to
grow from $2,540bn in 2022 to $5,194bn by 2029 –a growth of 10.76%. The effects are being felt in labor
markets across the world, although recovery patterns do differ. According to ILO director-general Guy Ryder, the European and North American regions are showing the most encouraging signs of recovery, while Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean have the most negative outlook. In the US, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics predicts that the national workforce will grow 7.66% in the next 10 years. Food and drink establishments have a lower projected workforce growth at 7.27%, with a lower projected 10-year growth output (21.4%) than the national growth in output (24.2%). Restaurant work is paid less than factory work; the average weekly pay
at restaurants and bars was $463.34 in April compared with $1,248.21 for manufacturing jobs, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Food services and drinking places contributed about 2.1% of US GDP in 2021, whereas manufacturing generated 11.1%.
Human-centered recovery
There are organizations seeking to boost recruitment and retention in the food industry. In California, a law (The Fast Food Accountability and Standards Recovery Act, AB 257), set to take effect on January 1, 2023, will establish an industry council for the fast food sector to set standards and regulations around wages, safety, discrimination and more. The law is the first of its kind in the country, with other state municipalities pushing for similar legislation. On a global scale, the ILO released recommendations for a human-centered recovery from the pandemic crisis at both national and international levels. The “Global Call to Action for a Human- Centred Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis That Is Inclusive, Sustainable and Resilient” was adopted by the ILO’s 187 member states in June 2021. “Two years into this crisis, the outlook remains fragile and the path to recovery is slow and uncertain,” Ryder says. “We are seeing potentially lasting damage to labor markets, along with concerning increases in poverty and inequality.” Laura Lentz FCSI, design principal at Culinary Advisors, says: “Labor shortages are top of mind now, and the issue is guiding design decisions.” Supply chain issues have eased a bit and people are going back to offices, hotels and restaurants. “That’s caused labor issues to surge to the fore,” she adds. Automation, robots and enhanced technology, paired with flexible design are some solutions. “We’re still working through these issues, but we’re coming together to do so.”
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WORLDWIDE
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